Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Tucson, AZ

387 
WGUS75 KTWC 052310
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
410 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

AZC023-060045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-220806T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
410 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 410 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3.5 
inches in 3 hours. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Patagonia, portions of Arizona State Route 82, and Sonoita as well 
  as Casa Blanca Canyon, Adobe Canyon, Dry Canyon, and Wood Canyon.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Sonoita Creek, Cienega Creek, Harshaw Creek, Josephine Canyon, 
  Gardner Canyon and Babocomari River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 11078 3172 11077 3170 11072 3170 11071
      3165 11062 3157 11062 3152 11067 3153 11076
      3151 11079 3152 11080 3161 11082 3168 11088
      3172 11084

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS

$$

KRG

917 
WGUS75 KTWC 060009
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
509 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

AZC023-060019-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-220806T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
509 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ 
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3173 11078 3172 11077 3170 11072 3170 11071
      3165 11062 3157 11062 3152 11067 3153 11076
      3151 11079 3152 11080 3161 11082 3168 11088
      3172 11084

$$

KRG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...As we move through the heart of the monsoon season,
expect daily thunderstorm chances with the potential for a few
strong storms at times. The pattern shifts toward even better
thunderstorm coverage by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows some modest cumulus
development across Southeast Arizona. A few storms tried to get
going on the mountains, but became short-lived from the strong
upper level winds and lack of lower support. There is a minor
ridge that is dampening thunderstorm prospects and a small
inversion at 400mb that most likely haven't broke since 12Z.
Although, there is a decent storm south of the International
border that can kick up outflows up into the region to get some
more storms going along the border. With that, isolated
thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening as the
day goes by to bring in more instability from the surface heating,
and if there is better upper level support.

Tomorrow, the upper level flow starts to shift into more of an
easterly flow as the High Pressure Center drifts northeastward.
Deterministic models show some upper level disturbances to fire
off scattered thunderstorms such as a vorticity max and minor
inverted shortwaves. CAMs look a little more promising on the
coverage of the storms due to the inverted shortwave troughs.
Thus, this weekend will have better better chances of
thunderstorms and showers. The risk of flash flooding will be
higher due to the saturated soils and flow in several washes. The
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has Southeast Arizona in a slight
risk through the weekend.

By next week, the High Pressure Center will reposition itself over
the Four Corners to bring in better flow and tap into deeper
moisture for daily chances of thunderstorms and showers across
the region.

Daytime temperatures will run near seasonable normal through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 8k-12k ft AGL and slowly diminishing to FEW-SCT
by 06/15z through the end of the forecast period. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
primarily between 05/21Z and 06/04Z and returning after 06/20Z,
mainly east and south of KTUS. CIGS may briefly lower to 4k-6k ft
AGL with the TSRA, along with mountain obscurations and wind
gusts to 40+ kts. Otherwise, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts,
favoring a NWLY/NLY direction during the afternoon hours and
variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoonal period is expected to continue
through much of the forecast, with daily rounds of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The typical threats of strong gusty winds and
heavy rainfall remain, as well as the potential for precipitation
outside the normal afternoon/evening cycles. Wind trends are
otherwise light following a diurnal pattern.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

AZZ503-504-507-513-052145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
157 PM MST Fri Aug 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima,
southwestern Cochise and northeastern Santa Cruz Counties through 245
PM MST...

At 156 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Sonoita, or 16 miles east of Tubac, moving northwest at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Whetstone, Huachuca City, Patagonia, Sonoita, Elgin,
Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Canelo, Madera Canyon and Ramsey
Canyon Preserve.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 82 between mile markers 18 and 55.
 Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 44.
 Route 90 between mile markers 306 and 323.
 Route 92 between mile markers 322 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 11018 3137 11029 3160 11100 3187 11085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 130DEG 10KT 3167 11077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH