Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Tucson, AZ

093 
WGUS75 KTWC 040240
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
740 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

AZC003-023-040400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-220804T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
740 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING 
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 740 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding has likely peaked, but swift flows are likely 
still occurring for areas around Parker Canyon Lake.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Parker Canyon Lake, Fort Huachuca and Coronado National Memorial.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 11053 3144 11063 3148 11066 3152 11059
      3152 11046 3144 11034 3133 11026 3133 11044
      3138 11047

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JRM

735 
WGUS75 KTWC 040357
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
857 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

AZC003-023-040407-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-220804T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
857 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. Watch for 
debris and mud on area roads.

LAT...LON 3139 11053 3144 11063 3148 11066 3152 11059
      3152 11046 3144 11034 3133 11026 3133 11044
      3138 11047

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...As we move through the heart of the monsoon season,
expect daily thunderstorm chances with the potential for a few strong
storms at times. Later in the week the pattern shifts toward even
better thunderstorm coverage

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today...Satellite shows a clear skies over
eastern part of the forecast area with some cumulus cloud build
ups over higher terrain. The increase amount of sunshine will
continue to help build those clouds up into mainly isolated
thunderstorms. The better instability and lift for thunderstorms
can start to occur in the evening from an inverted shortwave
trough. This wave has started to manifest over Mexico when
looking at the water vapor satellite. The deterministic models has
a better grasp on the feature than the previous model runs with a
projected time of starting in the late evening for our forecast
area. This feature can lead into a nocturnal MCS from Mexico as it
moves northwesterly and bringing scatter thunderstorms and
showers through the early morning. Plus, 20Z SPC mesoanalysis
shows bulk shear increasing in coverage and speed, which can
support more organization in the storms and a increase potential
for severe thunderstorm warnings to be issue throughout the
night. In terms of storm evolution, the CAMS all have different
ideas of the evolution of the storms. Some reduce the coverage
size and others showing different durations and timing of the
impacts. Overall, once storms get going, the storm motion will be
generally west-northwesterly and Tucson can receive a little
midnight wake up from a storm.

Tomorrow and the weekend...The upper level flow will continue a
east to southeasterly flow to bring daily chances of thunderstorms.
There can be several minor shortwave troughs around the high
pressure center that can enhance some stronger thunderstorms. PWAT
values will generally remain above 1.40 inches for Tucson and
westward which makes sense for our forecast area to be under a
slight risk from the WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook starting
tomorrow through at least Sunday. Not to mention, many parts of
the region is very saturated from the previous week's of rain. It
wouldn't take much to get ponding and flooding from a good storm.
It is the heart of the monsoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
Remnant SHRA/TSRA from this morning now exiting the area, allowing
for clearing skies aside from FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL near
mountain ranges. SHRA/TSRA start to redevelop after 04/21Z,
expanding in coverage this evening and continuing overnight. CIGS
may briefly lower to 4k-6k ft AGL with the TSRA, along with mountain
obscurations and wind gusts to 40+ kts. Light SFC winds otherwise
favor a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon hours and variable
in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The active monsoonal period is expected to continue
through much of the forecast, with daily rounds of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The typical threats of strong gusty winds and
heavy rainfall remain, as well as the potential for precipitation
outside the normal afternoon/evening cycles. Wind trends are
otherwise light following a diurnal pattern.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Strongman
Aviation...Howlett
Fire Weather....Howlett

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
555 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

AZZ509-510-040145-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
555 PM MST Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Greenlee
County through 645 PM MST...

At 554 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of Blue, or 22 miles northwest of Mule Creek, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rose Peak.

This includes Route 191 between mile markers 176 and 211.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 10921 3308 10946 3342 10949 3354 10921
      3333 10905 3330 10904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 056DEG 15KT 3338 10921

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CSC