Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Tucson, AZ

656 
WGUS75 KTWC 270041
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
541 PM MST Tue Jul 26 2022

AZC019-270051-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220727T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
541 PM MST Tue Jul 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Thursday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3194 11079 3201 11085 3204 11083 3210 11075
      3212 11071 3210 11065 3202 11064 3197 11070

$$

RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Tue Jul 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture associated with a favorable monsoon
flow pattern will allow for numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop the next few days which could result in local flooding and
flash flooding across the area. Cooler than average high temperatures
will also be a result of this pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Plenty of convection around southern Arizona today and
it got an early start over some of the higher terrain around 9:30 am.
Plenty of instability and moisture with PWs of 1.7" over Tucson, a
bit more west, a bit less east. Upper level diffluence noted over
much of southeast AZ associated with inverted trough nearby that is
giving the storms a boost. The main threat for the storms is heavy
rainfall leading to potential flooding given the PW level and the
slow movement of the storms. This is even more of a threat if one of
the storms moves over an area that already received heavy rainfall
recently. This activity will continue well into the evening hours and
will be slow to taper off.

Wednesday looks similar in many ways with plenty of moisture and an
assist from the inverted trough likely for much of the area. Given
plenty of sunshine it should end up being an active day as well.
With that in mind and in coordination with neighboring offices I have
extended the Flood Watch through Wednesday night.

Thursday onward the convective flood threat will begin diminishing,
more likely across eastern portions of the area as the inverted
trough ever so slowly drifts west. We may need to extend the watch
one more day for parts of the area but that is unclear at this time
as to what the areal extent could be if needed. That decision will
wait for tomorrow.

We will eventually and gradually transition to a more typical monsoon
pattern which will still be fairly active given the point we are at
in the monsoon, just not as active as we are now and with a reduced
flood threat.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
Scattered TSRA with isolated +TSRA likely into the evening hours then
tapering off after 17/05Z. Storms redeveloping again after 27/18Z.
Lower cigs between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around precipitation,
including gusty winds in excess of 40 kts. Otherwise, cloud bases
range 8-12k ft AGL with diurnal sfc winds generally less than 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture in place will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, providing a greater potential for heavy
rainfall. Most locations should see at least a wetting rain into next
week, with many locations seeing areal averages greater than one
half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the stronger
storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for AZZ501>515.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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