Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

514 
WGUS75 KTWC 250110
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
610 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

AZC019-250120-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220625T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
610 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3220 11264 3215 11238 3190 11246 3200 11276

$$

RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
have a different character and affect different areas each day. With
the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a
bit cooler than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection a little slower to get going this afternoon
but it is stirring at this time across the forecast area. It should
pick up further and continue through the evening before winding down
overnight. The PW is not that great, however storm motion is rather
slow so locally heavy rains are a possibility, especially any
convection that becomes somewhat terrain locked. DCAPE is rather high
from Tucson west and north so storms in that area will have the
potential to produce strong outflow winds this afternoon.

For Saturday, the central and eastern parts of the forecast area will
dry out a bit from today which will make things a bit more
challenging for convection. The atmosphere will be mixed through a
deep layer which will help but it is likely to be a mostly terrain
driven day. That is until one of the storms develops in the high
DCAPE area and kicks out a decent outflow. It will be interesting to
see how much develops given the marginal conditions.

Sunday into Monday a passing easterly wave will enhance the moisture
over the area and provide some focus. As a result we should see an
upswing in thunderstorm activity one or both of those days depending
on the timing of that passing wave.

Beyond that we may end up with a low grade monsoon day or two before
activity looks to ramp up again later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
FEW-SCT 6-10kft with SCT locally BKN 15-18k ft. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
with ISOLD CIGS 4-6k ft into the evening hours with brief and local
MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45 kts
possible with storms and outflows, mainly west and north of KTUS.
Otherwise, variable SFC winds to 15 kts into the evening then light
and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
likely have a different character and affect different areas each
day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be
near or a bit cooler than average.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

AZZ501-502-242230-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
256 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pima
County through 330 PM MST...

At 255 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gu Vo, or 27 miles southeast of Ajo, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gu Vo, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Pia Oik, Santa Cruz,
Kuakatch and San Simon West.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 61 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 11268 3219 11273 3228 11240 3192 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 258DEG 8KT 3207 11257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
410 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

AZZ501-502-242345-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
410 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pima
and southwestern Pinal Counties through 445 PM MST...

At 409 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hickiwan, or 22 miles east of Ajo, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hickiwan, Charco 27, Ventana and Vaya Chin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 11261 3251 11218 3221 11224 3222 11265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 259DEG 8KT 3233 11249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH