Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

179 
WGUS75 KTWC 040229
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
729 PM MST Sun Jul 3 2022

AZC003-040239-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220704T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
729 PM MST Sun Jul 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3142 11031 3146 11030 3150 11020 3146 11018
      3134 11020 3134 11025 3137 11028

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sun Jul 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
this evening and again on the 4th of July. Then Tuesday through
Friday the storms should become more isolated and mainly limited to
areas near the Mexico and New Mexico borders with afternoon
temperatures gradually warming. Storm activity should gradually
increase again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms started developing pretty much on cue late this
morning and the HRRR seems to be doing well with the initial
convection development. If that accuracy holds than the Tucson metro
has a chance of a some showers/storms rolling through later today.

For the 4th of July, we should have a little wave in the flow roll
northward through the area although it may be a bit earlier than
ideal if your looking for maximum affect. Multiple model solutions
continue to suggest an upswing in activity tomorrow afternoon and
evening and a little further west than today which makes sense given
the scenario. Several of the CAM solutions indicate a group of storms
rolling SE to NW through the Tucson metro later in the day tomorrow
for more naturally generated fireworks. We will see!

For Tuesday through Thursday and potentially Friday, we will see a
gradual decrease in storm amount/coverage as the upper trough to the
west lifts up and the upper level high begins trying to consolidate
toward the west. This won't be a shut down but storms will be fewer
and primarily affecting far eastern and southern areas. With this
kind of transition, afternoon temperatures will be on a gradual rise
and at this time appear to peak Saturday around 3 degrees warmer than
average. Ensemble/blend guidance then points to more moisture
gradually returning to the area with temperatures slowly settling
back. That said there is a fair amount of difference in various
operational runs so the transition may not be as smooth as it looks
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
Through 04/05Z, SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-9k ft AGL and SCT SHRA/TSRA
from a KTUS/KOLS line eastward. Slowly diminishing clouds and
shower/storm activity aft 04/05Z. Erratic SFC wind gusts and outflows
in excess of 40 kts possible with TSRA during the afternoon and
evening hours. Somewhat more widespread showers and Thunderstorms
expected Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, SFC wind generally
less than 12 kts, favoring a SLY/SWLY direction during the afternoon
hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening
mainly from a Tucson to Nogales line eastward. Monday we should have
a bit more storm coverage which should also expand to just west of a
Tucson to Nogales line. Storm chances diminish Tuesday into Friday
and become more confined to the New Mexico and Mexico border areas.
Then starting next weekend, storm coverage should be on the increase
again as the upper level high tries to settle into a more typical
monsoon patter, 4-corners area.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1203 PM MST Sun Jul 3 2022

AZZ508-512-031930-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1203 PM MST Sun Jul 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cochise
County through 1230 PM MST...

At 1202 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chiricahua National Monument, or 23 miles northwest of Rodeo, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chiricahua National Monument and Paradise.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 181 between mile markers 55 and 64.
 Route 186 between mile markers 351 and 359.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 10917 3180 10930 3202 10963 3224 10935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 135DEG 19KT 3204 10939

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KGD