Flash Flood Warning 165, NWS Tucson, AZ

Issued

Oct 16, 2022, 11:08 AM MST (18:08 UTC)

Expired

Oct 16, 2022, 2:15 PM MST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Tucson, AZ

Area

Storm-based polygon

Damage threat

Considerable

Flood severity

None

County Pinal County, AZ

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

481 
WGUS55 KTWC 161808
FFWTWC
AZC021-162115-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0165.221016T1808Z-221016T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1108 AM MST Sun Oct 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central Pinal County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 215 PM MST.

* At 1108 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible 
  in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central Pinal County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 11103 3319 11101 3318 11099 3317 11099
      3313 11100 3311 11100 3310 11100 3309 11101
      3308 11105 3307 11111 3308 11116 3309 11118

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CSC

224 
WGUS75 KTWC 162105
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Sun Oct 16 2022

AZC021-162115-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0165.000000T0000Z-221016T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal AZ-
205 PM MST Sun Oct 16 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3319 11103 3319 11101 3318 11099 3317 11099
      3313 11100 3311 11100 3310 11100 3309 11101
      3308 11105 3307 11111 3308 11116 3309 11118

$$

CSC

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 16, 2:52 AM MST, 8 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
252 AM MST Sun Oct 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue today as a Pacific low pressure system moves across
southern Arizona. Cooler today, before a return to warmer and drier
weather this coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
end from west to east today as a low pressure system passes through
AZ. A few of the stronger showers and thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and hail, mainly through late morning.
Thereafter, ensembles favored a ridge of high pressure aloft
building over the region in the wake of this system. This will
result in warmer and drier weather this coming week. In the longer
range, the models showed another upper low off the southern
California coast late next week. However, it is still too early to
resolve how this pattern will evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 5k-9k ft AGL thru 17/04Z, then clearing skies.
ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/SHRA, with diminishing precipitation chances from
west to east aft 17/01Z. MVFR conditions, mountain obscurations and
wind gusts to near 40 kts with the stronger SHRA and -TSRA. Outside
of any thunderstorm outflow winds, SFC wind less than 10 kts
favoring a WLY/NWLY direction in the afternoon/early evening hours
and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across southeast Arizona will diminish from west to east by this
evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in
northern Graham and northern Greenlee counties. 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 mph, although some gusty outflow winds
will be a possibility with the thunderstorms. Dry and warmer
conditions return areawide early to mid week, with the potential for
another storm system late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2022Every flash flood warning in 2022

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.