Flash Flood Warning 164, NWS Tucson, AZ

636 
WGUS75 KTWC 300021
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
521 PM MST Thu Sep 29 2022

AZC019-023-300031-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0164.000000T0000Z-220930T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
521 PM MST Thu Sep 29 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3165 11118 3161 11129 3164 11134 3170 11133
      3171 11125 3174 11108 3173 11108 3170 11107

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 PM MST Thu Sep 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected across parts of southern Arizona through Saturday with
highest chances south and west of Tucson. Chances decrease Sunday
into next week but isolated storms will still be present each
afternoon, especially over the higher elevations. Temperatures
remain near normal for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Light shower activity continues to develop early this afternoon
along with a couple of storms on the northern edge of a mid-level
low centered just south of the international border. The cloud
cover from earlier today has inhibited destabilization and latest
RAP mesoanalysis focuses any SBCAPE south of Tucson over Santa
Cruz County. CAMs have picked up on this trend and backed off
quite a bit since this morning regarding convective development
this afternoon. By tomorrow, clearing in the cloud cover should
allow for improved diurnal heating. The mid-level trough will
still be situated to our south which will provide some additional
upper level support. This support combined with instability and
sufficient moisture still in place should lead to more scattered
storm activity on Friday afternoon and evening. Storm chances
remain highest along the border at roughly 50%-60% in closest
proximity to the low then chances decrease as you head northward.
Tucson is currently running a 40%-50% chance for rain so we could
add some additional rainfall onto the monsoon total on the last
official day of the monsoon.

Heading into the weekend, the low continues to meander to our
south as a more pronounced trough settles over the Great Basin to
the north. Scattered showers and storms will continue into
Saturday as a result before the trough to the south weakens and
opens up going into Sunday. The Great Basin trough will also shift
eastward with a ridge building over much of the western U.S.
early next week. Moisture will decrease slightly late in the
weekend through early next week but there will still be enough to
support isolated to scattered storms pretty much each day through
Wednesday. The higher elevations will see the best chances each
day with more isolated activity across the lower elevations.
Temperatures will remain consistently near normal for this time of
year with lows dropping a couple of degrees this weekend into
early next week as moisture decreases slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/12z.
SCT/BKN at KTUS and BKN/OVC at KOLS between 6-11k ft agl this
afternoon. Expect this to continue through this evening with SCT
TSRA/SHRA at KOLS and ISO SHRA around KTUS through 30/02z. SFC
winds remain E/SE around 6-11 kts with the occasional gusts around
20 kts also through 20/02z when gusts will subside as speeds drop
to around 8 kts or less overnight. Gusty outflow winds and brief
visibility reductions in heavy rain possible with TS. Another day
of SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected for Thursday after 20z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Saturday, generally from Tucson south and west.
The main threat from the storms besides lightning will be strong
and gusty outflow winds. Storm chances will decrease Sunday into
early next week but isolated activity is still expected each
afternoon. 20-foot winds will remain less than 15 kts each
afternoon.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Guillet

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