Flash Flood Warning 161, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 PM MST Wed Sep 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern Arizona
through Friday. These are expected primarily from Tucson south and
west and over the White Mountains. Temperatures slide back a few
degrees by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms and showers have developed in the
early afternoon for the Catalina Foothills and areas near HWY 79
in Pinal County. 19Z Mesoanalysis depicts better CAPE in Tucson to
the northwest than areas south and west of Tucson. Plus, there is
decent upper level divergence to help drive thunderstorm
development. The latest 18Z HRRR run seems to fair better over the
course of the morning as it captured the storm development in
Pinal County, but failed to pick out the Tucson storms. Not all
bad, the region just needs a little more daytime heating to
create better energy for storm development, especially west and
south of Tucson. As storms develop, they can last into the early
evening and bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

Tomorrow and through the weekend, a trough over the Pacific
Northwest will continue into the intermountain region to bring
about a change in weather. What a great way to end the monsoon
season for Southeast Arizona. The trough will start to bring
temperatures back down to near seasonal normals through the
weekend. The PWATs will continue to drop each day, however the
International Border and the White Mountains can expect to see
daily chances for thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00z.
Isolated/scattered SHRA/-TSRA expected for the rest of the
afternoon through 29/04Z, mainly Tucson west and south.
SHRA/-TSRA returns after 29/20Z south and west of Tucson. SCT
clouds around 7-12k ft agl with BKN/OVC 20k ft AGL through the
rest of the period. SFC winds E-SE at 8-13 kts through the
afternoon with the occasional strong gusts from any TSRA. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Friday, generally from the Tucson
south and west and over the Mogollon Rim country. The main threat
from the storms besides lightning will be strong and gusty
outflow winds. There will still be some SE/E morning and afternoon
breezes, but winds lighten by Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Strongman

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
144 PM MST Wed Sep 28 2022

AZZ504>506-282130-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Tucson Metro
Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-South Central Pinal
County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
144 PM MST Wed Sep 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pima
and south central Pinal Counties through 230 PM MST...

At 142 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Picacho Peak State Park, or 20 miles northwest of Marana, moving
north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Dust could create visibilities
         reductions along Interstate 10 between Tucson and Phoenix.
         Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eloy, Avra Valley, Picacho, Picacho Peak State Park and Red Rock.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 206 and 233.
 Route 87 between mile markers 116 and 124.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 11138 3256 11106 3245 11134 3264 11160
      3271 11163 3278 11159 3284 11154 3289 11147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 192DEG 7KT 3259 11143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRG