Flash Flood Warning 133, NWS Tucson, AZ

646 
WGUS75 KTWC 100243
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
743 PM MST Fri Sep 9 2022

AZC019-021-100430-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0133.000000T0000Z-220910T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Pinal AZ-
743 PM MST Fri Sep 9 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

At 743 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Silver Bell.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Robles Wash, Los, Aguirre Wash, Tiro Wash, El, House Wash and 
  Mammoth Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 11163 3251 11151 3237 11146 3229 11146
      3229 11157 3236 11162 3245 11164

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

350 
WGUS75 KTWC 100426
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
926 PM MST Fri Sep 9 2022

AZC019-021-100436-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0133.000000T0000Z-220910T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Pinal AZ-
926 PM MST Fri Sep 9 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3251 11163 3251 11151 3237 11146 3229 11146
      3229 11157 3236 11162 3245 11164

$$

KRG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
118 PM MST Fri Sep 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deep tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm
Kay will result in an active pattern for showers and thunderstorms
through Monday. A few of these showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall today, especially across
Eastern Pima and Southeast Pinal counties. Tropical storm Kay will
rapidly decay over the next few days. The southern periphery of the
remnant low pressure system will track across Southeast Arizona
Sunday and Monday. This will result in the potential for some strong
thunderstorms. Otherwise, high temperatures will be slightly below
normal today and Saturday before warming back to more seasonable
readings next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The overall weather pattern this afternoon is defined
by Tropical Storm Kay centered off the coast of the northern Baja
(30.8N 117.4W) and a ridge of high pressure off the Pacific
Northwest.

The western position of Tropical Storm Kay is preventing widespread
rainfall from expanding east of Yuma county into western Pima
county. We inherited a Flood Watch for Western Pima county, but at
this time none of the hi-res models indicate heavy rain will make it
into the area. Therefore, we felt it necessary to cancel the Flood
Watch.Howveer, there is no doubt that this feature has done its job
with moistening up Arizona from the south. The 12Z KTWC upper air
sounding indicated 1.32 inches of PWAT this morning and both the
Tucson and Amado stations on the UofA GPS Precipitable Water Vapor
page indicate current PWAT values around 1.50 inches. A weak band/
kink in the 500 mb flow in the extreme outer envelop of TS Kay will
continue to rotate north trough southeast Arizona this afternoon/
evening. These storms will help initiate convection, especially
across eastern Pima county northwest into Southeast Pinal county.
Given how juicy the atmosphere is, expect these storms to have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall.

Tropical Storm Kay is expected to rapidly decay over the next day or
two becoming a remnant low pressure system Saturday. This feature
will then eject northeast Sunday and Monday. The southern periphery
of this feature will track through Southeast Arizona resulting in an
increase in coverage and intensity to thunderstorms. The strongest
and most impactful storms are expected Monday. The combination of
stronger dynamics, a dry slug of moisture rotating along the
southern edge of the upper low and deep moisture in place across the
region will increase the potential that the storms that develop will
be strong in nature. Damaging organized outflow winds and isolated
flash flooding due to training storms will be possible with the
storms Monday.

Otherwise...a flat broad ridge is expected to fill into the area
south of Arizona in the wake of the departing upper low. This is
result in a dry westerly flow into our neck of the woods, shutting
down thunderstorm activity the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z.
Increasing moisture associated with Tropical Storm Kay will result
scattered showers and thunderstorms today through late Saturday.
Expect SCT SHRA/TSRA with CIGS 4-6kft AGL developing after 09/21Z,
especially from KTUS and KOLS westward. Otherwise, clouds will be
BKN-OVC AOA 12kft AGL. SFC winds S/SE 8-12 kts with ocnl gusts up to
25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture associated with Tropical Storm
Kay will bring wetting rains today through late Saturday. Remnants
of Kay will pass through the state Sunday and Monday resulting in
additional rain chances. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with some of the stronger showers or thunderstorms. Otherwise,
maximum temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today into
the weekend before warming back to seasonable readings next week.
Locally breezy east to southeast winds can be anticipated today into
the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...none.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
416 PM MST FRI SEP 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NE GREEN VALLEY      31.99N 110.86W
09/09/2022                   PIMA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WILMOT RD SOUTH OF ANDRADA RD SOUTHBOUND IS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KJS