Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Tucson, AZ

682 
WGUS75 KTWC 271902
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1202 PM MST Sat Aug 27 2022

AZC003-272030-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-220827T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
1202 PM MST Sat Aug 27 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 1202 PM MST, gauge reports indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. The Ash Canyon rain gauge has 
recorded 1.18 inches. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Gauges reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ash Canyon, Southern Hereford, Coronado National Memorial.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  San Pedro River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 11030 3140 11024 3138 11018 3135 11017
      3135 11020 3134 11024 3135 11028 3135 11029
      3136 11030

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

729 
WGUS75 KTWC 272025
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
125 PM MST Sat Aug 27 2022

AZC003-272035-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-220827T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
125 PM MST Sat Aug 27 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 130 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3140 11030 3140 11024 3138 11018 3135 11017
      3135 11020 3134 11024 3135 11028 3135 11029
      3136 11030

$$

AWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
924 AM MST Sat Aug 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A daily chance of thunderstorms will continue through
Sunday. Some drying is expected early next week with fewer storms
as a result. High pressure will bring hotter temperatures by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still looking at isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms again today as depicted by the latest high resolution
models even though a drier flow pattern was evolving. Further drying
and a subsequent decrease in rain chances can be anticipated
tomorrow into next week. No updates to the current forecast will be
necessary this morning. Please refer to the previous discussion
section in this product for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/18Z.
SCT-BKN 100-150 with isolated SHRA/TSRA. Increasing to scattered
thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms
could produce decreased visibilities in heavy rain, gusts in excess
of 40 kts, and BKN-OVC clouds at 4k-6k ft AGL. Aviation not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue through most of the weekend with a downward trend
early next week. Primary threats will be strong winds, lightning,
and flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends
will remain light and favor a west to northwest direction each
day through early next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued at 235 AM MST Sat Aug 27/ Isolated
showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning, with a line
of moderate storms in southwest and south central Pinal county
pushing slowly south. Surface dewpoints are still monsoony, hanging
around the lower to middle 60s. The 00Z KTWC sounding measure
precipitable water near a seasonable 1.5 inches, with GOES TPW
values ranging from 1.65 inches west to 1.25 inches east. As per
latest ensemble/meso output we should have no problem with mid day
initiation in most of our sky islands and mountain ranges. Vigorous
outflows should help push up some valley storms by early to mid
afternoon.

As the remnant high reconsolidates to our south and broad
troughiness develops across the region, the resulting westerly flow
at most levels will start to eat away at some of the moisture in
place. Once PW values widely drop below 1.4 inches early in the new
week, we'll see storm coverage diminish with little more than
daytime heating to support storm development (often limits most
storms to higher terrain with a solid diurnal trend in the absence
of other forcing).

As high pressure rebuilds through the Great Basin to our northwest
and north, our storm level flow will veer northeasterly/easterly,
with sufficient moisture for strong outflow off the Mogollon Rim the
second half of the new week as we welcome the last month of
thunderstorm season. That's assuming we don't see too much continued
drying wrapping around the high from the north.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

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