Flash Flood Warning 127, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 PM MST Wed Aug 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the end of the week then a gradual drying
trend develops Sunday into the middle of next week resulting in
less storm coverage each day. Near or slightly below normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend with a bit of a
warm up expected early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Showers began to develop late this morning and continue to
develop early into this afternoon. They have struggled to even
produce lightning thus far today with the first strike not
occuring until early this afternoon despite showers going for a
couple of hours. Santa Cruz and Pima counties look to have better
chances for a couple of stronger storms with relatively higher
instability in this area. Additional heavy rain into the Gila
River basin doesn't look likely today or tomorrow, hopefully
allowing the river levels to continue to recede. On Thursday the
focus for convection will be south of Tucson as well as over the
White Mtns with flow remaining easterly. The overall pattern will
be dictated by the ridge which remains to the north near the Four
Corners today before shifting southward on Thursday across Arizona
into Baja/Sonora by Friday. Over the weekend, a mid level trough
will move into the Western US, weakening the ridge before it
reconsolidates over the Desert Southwest early to mid next week.
The switch to westerly flow will allow a gradual drying trend
which in turn will lead to a lowering rain chances each day.
Enough moisture will remain in place for scattered showers and
storms to develop Friday through the weekend, favoring the higher
elevations with rain chances dropping to 15-25 percent Monday
through the end of the period.

Near to below normal temps are expected through the weekend before
warming back up a few degrees early next week as high pressure
settles back over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible through
25/01z-25/03z. FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-8k ft AGL will continue
through this evening with SCT-BKN clouds at or above 10k ft AGL
through at least 25/12z. Direct impacts to the terminals from
SHRA/TSRA could briefly lower CIGS to 3k-5k ft AGL and lower
visibilities in heavy downpours. Easterly winds will become light
and diurnal this evening. Another day of scattered SHRA/TSRA is
forecast for Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through this upcoming weekend with a downward trend after
Saturday. Primary threats will be strong winds, lightning, and
flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends will
remain light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Gila River will continue to see a flood wave move slowly
downstream of Safford over the next 48 hours and then remain
elevated through into the weekend. Flood advisories are in effect
as a result of this flow.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Guillet

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