Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 PM MST Tue Aug 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the upcoming weekend although the heavy rainfall
threat will be much less than this past weekend. Temperatures will
be warmer but remain a bit below normal during the work week.

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.DISCUSSION...12z 500 mb analysis placed mid-level high over
southern NV with light N-NE flow over the area. PW values this
morning, using various sources, ranged from 1.25" east of Tucson
to 1.70" west of Tucson.

Although activity has been slow to get started this afternoon
across the area, activity has fired up nicely over the eastern Rim
with thunderstorm outflows from this area propagating S/SW under
N/NE steering flow through the late evening hours. Main threats
will be strong gusty winds, blowing dust, heavy rain and flash
flooding. SPC has areas from Tucson west under Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms.

Steering flow Wednesday changes slightly to more out of the east
with scattered storms pushing west during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Again main threats will be strong gusty
winds, blowing dust, heavy rain and flash flooding.

Thursday into the weekend: Downturn in activity as the upper high
settles in over northern Mexico. This will bring a drier westerly
flow aloft. However we'll have enough lingering moisture around
for daily chances of storms, mainly south and east of Tucson.

High temperatures over the last 7 days on the month will be
around late August normals.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be propagating off the
higher terrain to the SW across the lower elevations into the
overnight hours tonight. Expect SCT-BKN cloud decks 7k-10k ft AGL
developing this afternoon with SCT-BKN higher clouds through the
period. Stronger SHRA/TSRA could reduce visibilities in heavy
downpours, briefly lower CIGS to 3k- 6k ft AGL and produce gusts
to 40+ kts. Otherwise winds generally light and following diurnal
trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue through this upcoming weekend with a bit of a downward
trend after Thursday. Primary threats will be strong winds,
lightning, and isolated flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm
activity, wind trends will remain light and follow typical diurnal
trends.

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.HYDROLOGY...The Gila River will continue to see a flood wave move
slowly downstream into Wednesday and then remain elevated through
into the weekend. Flood warnings and advisories are in effect as
a result of this flow.

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.TWC NON-Flood WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 PM MST Tue Aug 23 2022

AZZ506-509-511-232315-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount
Graham-
331 PM MST Tue Aug 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Graham
and east central Pinal Counties through 415 PM MST...

At 329 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness, or 24 miles east of
Christmas. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Klondyke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

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LAT...LON 3300 11049 3304 11040 3310 11029 3297 11007
      3279 11031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 317DEG 4KT 3297 11033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
711 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     7.5 SSE TUCSON          32.10N 110.84W
08/23/2022  M76 MPH          PIMA               AZ   ASOS

            WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE TUCSON
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
725 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8.2 ESE TUCSON          32.15N 110.76W
08/23/2022                   PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF MULTIPLE POWER POLES
            DOWN ON KOLB BETWEEN GOLF LINKS AND
            ESCALANTE.

&&