Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Tucson, AZ

582 
WGUS75 KTWC 201345
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
645 AM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

AZC021-201530-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-220820T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal AZ-
645 AM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM MST THIS 
MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

At 645 AM MST, gauge reports indicated high flows caused by runoff 
from earlier heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Runoff from earlier
         rainfall is producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Gauges reported. The Lower Aravaipa Creek streamflow
         gauge peaked at 7.4 feet and as of 624 AM MST is at 6.2
         feet.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 11047 3290 11048 3290 11050 3291 11053
      3290 11055 3288 11056 3286 11058 3284 11060
      3283 11064 3282 11068 3285 11069 3285 11067
      3286 11063 3287 11061 3291 11058 3292 11055
      3293 11051

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

556 
WGUS75 KTWC 201526
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
826 AM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

AZC021-201536-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-220820T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal AZ-
826 AM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. However, elevated flows will continue in the Aravaipa creek 
especially in the canyon. A flood advisory remains in effect for a 
larger area including Aravaipa creek until 945 am mst.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MST Saturday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3292 11047 3290 11048 3290 11050 3291 11053
      3290 11055 3288 11056 3286 11058 3284 11060
      3283 11064 3282 11068 3285 11069 3285 11067
      3286 11063 3287 11061 3291 11058 3292 11055
      3293 11051

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 AM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
next week with a continued uptick in activity today. The main
threats will be strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall especially
today. Otherwise, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows scattered showers across
southeast Arizona. Area gauges at washes and rivers have started
to come down from their peaks caused by earlier rainfall. Water
vapor shows a few upper level lows in the region. One is over the
central Sonora Coast, another is over east central Arizona, and
the third is moving into southern Utah. Models slowly drift the
low over Sonora northward, with the low in Arizona moving off
into New Mexico. Mesoanalysis shows fairly strong upper level
divergence over most of southern Arizona, which will aid in
increasing shower activity early this morning. PWAT values are
near record levels with the KTWC 20/00Z sounding recording 1.98".
This anomalous moisture combined with the upper level forcing from
the low will lead to a continued threat of widespread heavy
rainfall and flash flooding today. Runoff from storms will also
likely lead to a flood threat for area rivers and larger washes.

By Sunday the low over Sonora weakens considerably as high
pressure begins to build back into the Southwest. This high pushes
the low over Utah into Colorado and briefly puts Arizona in
northwesterly mid-level flow. Moisture does decrease a little but
will still be above normal. Expect scattered convection with a
more localized flash flooding threat. Soil moisture will be very
high, so it won't take much rain to cause runoff.

Early next week the high slowly migrates back into the Great
Basin. Thunderstorm activity looks to decrease some as the area
loses some of its moisture. But there will still be enough around
for daily afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be well below normal today and continue to be
below normal through Monday. Tuesday onward temperatures will be
normal to just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/12Z.
Slow moving low pressure system over the area will continue to bring
scattered to broken cloud clds, with CIGs down to 3k-6k ft possible
at KOLS for a few hours early in the period. ISOLD/SCT SHRA will
continue through the period with a few embedded TSRA possible in the
area from 20/18Z-20/23Z. Stronger showers and storms could reduce
visibilities in heavy downpours, briefly lower CIGS to 3k-6k ft AGL,
and/or produce gusts of 40+ kts even if only in the vicinity of the
terminal. Otherwise, winds following diurnal trends at speeds of
10kts or less can be expected. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal thunderstorm activity will remain elevated
through the weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
expected each day. Primary threats include strong winds, lightning,
and flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends
will remain light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ501>515.

&&

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