Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Tue Jun 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather is forecast into Thursday across
southern Arizona with gusty afternoon winds continuing this
afternoon. These winds will result in elevated fire weather
conditions today. Then monsoon moisture will begin to invade the
area later Thursday resulting in increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures cooling back to
near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air will settle in over the region thanks to the
southwest flow regime with afternoon dewpoints dropping as we mix out
the low level moisture. Therefore showers and thunderstorms are not
expected the next couple of days. Today we will also have a decent
southwest breeze with the main impact being its affect on area
wildfires.

Thursday will be a transition day where temperatures will peak at
potentially the highest level of the year for many locations,
primarily central and western parts of the forecast area. South to
southeast flow will develop which will begin to usher in tropical
moisture, first at the mid levels late in the day then mixing down to
the surface late Thursday night into Friday. The moisture looks to
arrive early enough to bring about a slight chance for late day
thunderstorms to eastern areas and then primarily over the
mountains. Friday onward through the weekend we will have daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona and in
typical monsoon fashion each day will be somewhat affected by what
happens the previous day. This moisture and the resultant
precipitation will help to lower temperatures back to or a bit below
seasonal norms this weekend. Nice to see moisture headed our way!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
Clear skies through the period. Light southerly SFC winds will
become SWLY 12-18 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this afternoon then
decreasing to light and variable again tonight. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions will prevail the next two days
with gusty southwest winds once again this afternoon resulting in
elevated fire weather conditions most areas. Humidity values will be
very low including overnight with very poor recoveries especially
Wednesday night.

Thursday will be very hot with low humidity, however monsoon moisture
will begin to move into the area from the east and southeast late in
the day with a slight chance of late afternoon thunderstorms eastern
areas. The moisture will continue to surge into the area Thursday
night into the weekend with significantly higher humidity levels and
increasing chances of daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. Moisture levels will be high enough that wetting
rains are expected with the showers and storms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for
AZZ501>507-509.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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