Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

The initial round of scattered thunderstorms associated with a
diffuse surface boundary just north of I-40 have subsided in
coverage and intensity after sunset. Intense heating ahead of the
boundary this afternoon, shown by near record and record highs in
the mid 90s were the main driver for this thunderstorm
development. Some localized areas saw some much needed rain,
along with some hail and gusty winds. Rainfall totals in and
around Fort Smith were in the 2-3 inch range with some locally
higher amounts likely. As this round moves off, focus will turn to
the next round of storms expected across a large chunk of the
forecast area overnight tonight. Storms are ongoing across parts
of central Oklahoma on the nose of a lower level warm advection
regime bringing deeper moisture up and over the existing frontal
boundary. These storms are expected to continue and to grow
greater in coverage as the low level jet cranks up overnight and a
stronger frontal boundary approaches form the north. A line of
storms, some possibly strong to severe, will surge southeastward
across eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during the
overnight hours. Increasing moisture could lead to some more
locally heavy rainfall and a good portion of the forecast area
should see some much needed rain over the next 24 hours. Some
isolated totals in the 2-3 inch will be possible with more
widespread 1-2 inch totals likely, especially from near I-40 and
south.

Going forecast is in pretty good shape...update will include some
slight update to PoPs and QPF based on latest guidance and
timing.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of southeast
Oklahoma daybreak Sunday, with a continued locally heavy rainfall
threat. The severe weather threat, while nonzero, will be lower
than that seen for much of the preceding overnight period. The
front will be slow to clear the Red River during the day Sunday,
with some potential for thunderstorms lingering in far southeast
Oklahoma into the afternoon. Drier air will make a more southward
push by mid to late afternoon, which will bring an end to the
rainfall potential into next weekend.

Focus then turns to the likelihood of a widespread killing freeze
by the middle of the week. A cold and dry airmass will settle into
the region for the early to middle part of the work week. Freeze
headlines will likely be needed Tuesday morning and Wednesday
morning. The forecast lows for both mornings feature a blend of
the NBM 25th percentile and traditional MOS values, much lower
than the lows offered by the deterministic NBM.

With the dry airmass in place, fire weather concerns could
increase early to mid week, depending on how the rainfall tonight
impacts fuels in the short term.

Temperatures will increase late in the week and into the weekend
as weak ridging aloft builds into the area and southerly winds
return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Storm impacts to the terminals are the main concern in the near
term, with conditions potentially dropping to MVFR or IFR briefly.
Model data indicates saturation of the BL across SE OK into WC AR
ahead of the stronger frontal push. Thus, a period of IFR and then
MVFR cigs was inserted into the KMLC and KFSM TAF sites in the
roughly 12Z to 18Z time frame Sunday morning. Drier air pushing
into the region from the north will erode the low clouds during
the afternoon, returning to VFR. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across NE OK and NW AR outside of storms.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  43  62  32 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   72  49  66  35 /  70   0   0   0
MLC   70  48  64  33 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   73  39  61  29 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   70  39  60  26 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   70  41  59  28 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   72  44  62  31 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   72  38  57  27 /  10   0   0   0
F10   71  45  63  32 /  40   0   0   0
HHW   70  54  66  37 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
515 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...A Few Severe Thunderstorms Expected...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Now... ending from northwest to southeast
            later tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the middle of
eastern Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. A few of these
storms will be severe through the evening hours with hail
up to 2 inches and wind gusts near 70 mph associated with
the strongest storms.  These storm will shift east
into the body of Arkansas this evening.  However, additional
storms will develop this evening from northwest Arkansas into
northern Oklahoma.  These storms will merge into a complex
and travel southeast across the region during the night.
After Midnight the threat will be for quarter size hail
and some wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph.  The storm complex will
start to exit southeast Oklahoma toward morning.

Locally heavy rain will occur in some locations.  Amounts
near 3 inches will occur near where strongest storms occur,
and / or  where multiple storm cross the same areas. Many
locations will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The remaining rain and thunderstorms will push out of
southeast Oklahoma tomorrow morning.

A colder and dry airmass will settle into the region
for the first half of next week.  Warmer conditions are
expected the later half of the week.  A freeze will have
occurred in most parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Wednesday.  This will encourage grasses to
become dormant and be more receptive to drying when
the warmer weather returns next Thursday and Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>