Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

A rather tight west to east instability gradient exists this
evening from central into eastern OK, although the atmosphere
has recovered to some degree across our region. Newly developed
convection across southern KS is expected to expand in coverage
as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east overnight,
with organized storms moving into parts of northeast OK toward
midnight. 00Z HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on the
situation, with storms dropping southeast overnight, eventually
into western AR/southeast OK late tonight. Initial activity may
have a large hail threat, but expect damaging winds to be the
main concern overnight.

Have made adjustments to overnight PoPs closely based on the
recent HRRR output.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Whatever is left of the overnight MCS should shift east of the
area much earlier in the day Monday, allowing for a warmer
afternoon. Additional MCS development is likely most every night
this coming week, with Tuesday night and Thursday night showing
the strongest signals for significant storm complexes.

A cold front will move through the area by next weekend ending the
MCS train, but any cooler weather in its wake will be short lived
as upper ridging looks to take over by early in the following
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

The main aviation concern will be convective potential over the
first 6 hours of the forecast. Complex of storms to the N and W of
the region is expected to slide SE overnight into Monday morning.
The NE OK sites stand the greatest chance of more impactful
storms, thus TEMPOs for these sites reduce vsbys to IFR and
suggest gusty wind potential. Expect weakening of the complex as
it tracks down into SE OK and NW AR where instability is weaker.
TEMPOs at these sites are less aggressive with MVFR potential.
Widespread cigs less than VFR are not expected during the TAF
period, but there is potential for a brief period of MVFR cigs in
the cooler more saturated air behind the outflow from the storms.
Once storms exit the region early Monday, the remainder of the day
looks quiet with VFR conditions.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  86  68 /  10  30  50  60
FSM   89  73  89  70 /  50  20  40  60
MLC   89  73  89  70 /  10  20  20  50
BVO   85  67  84  65 /  20  40  50  60
FYV   84  66  83  65 /  30  30  60  70
BYV   84  66  82  64 /  30  30  70  70
MKO   87  71  87  68 /  20  20  40  60
MIO   84  66  82  64 /  30  40  70  70
F10   87  71  87  68 /   0  20  30  60
HHW   91  72  92  71 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Primarily after 11 PM.

    AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing thunderstorms across western Kansas will continue to expand
in coverage, with one or more complexes potentially impacting eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by late evening and continuing into
the overnight hours. A risk of significant severe wind gusts in
excess of 70 mph may spread into portions of northeast Oklahoma as
the complex approaches the region after 11 pm this evening. The
severe wind threat may extend farther east and south through the
overnight hours as storms surge southeast. Additionally, a period of
heavy rainfall is likely as the storm complex spreads across the
region. Localized flooding may become a concern overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early Monday with a limited
severe weather and heavy rainfall risk. A brief lull in thunderstorm
chances is forecast for Monday afternoon before another storm complex
spreads across the region Monday night into Tuesday. The active
weather pattern will continue through the work week with daily
thunderstorm chances. A risk of severe weather will accompany any
well developed thunderstorm complexes. Also areas of heavy rainfall
are likely to develop through the week which may raise flooding
concerns.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
223 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

OKZ060>062-067-060800-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
223 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rogers, western
Mayes, northwestern Wagoner and northeastern Tulsa Counties through
300 AM CDT...

At 222 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Oologah to 3 miles southeast of
Owasso to 4 miles north of Jenks Riverside Airport. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Claremore...                      Pryor...
Owasso...                         Pryor Creek...
Catoosa...                        Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Chouteau...
Inola...                          Oologah...
Adair...                          Foyil...
Tulsa International Airport...    Sportsmen Acres Community...
Taiwah...                         Tiawah...
Turley...                         Mazie...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 227 and 265.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9522 3611 9530 3594 9555 3617 9600
      3621 9600 3631 9588 3643 9585 3642 9581
      3648 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 290DEG 45KT 3638 9573 3625 9578 3610 9600

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>