Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

All has remained quiet across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this evening, but that may change later tonight. There is
a chance that storms to the north in Kansas may organize and begin
shifting southeast later, affecting parts of northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. In addition, storms in southwest Oklahoma
may expand northeast into parts of the area overnight. Overall
confidence is not high, and as such will keep the current flood
watch as is. Have lowered pops a bit in northeast Oklahoma, as
current confidence does not support categorical pops, but likely
pops will still suffice.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday
into Thursday morning as a cold front slowly moves through the
area and a mid-level shortwave sweeps across the Plains. There will
be the potential for strong to severe storms as we move into Wednesday
afternoon and evening in the vicinity of the cold front. Heavy rain
will also be a concern during this time with slow moving and training
storms expected. A Flood Watch will continue from tonight through
late Wednesday night for portions of northeast Oklahoma where the
greatest concentration of storms is expected. 1 to 3 inches of rain
will common across the Watch area with locally higher amounts
possible.

High pressure will move into the area behind the cold front
Thursday afternoon and prevail through Friday. The chances of showers
and thunderstorms return late Friday night and continue off and on
into early next week as a series of mid-level shortwaves move
across the area in a nearly zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

The plan for this forecast is to keep VFR conditions prevailing at
all sites over the first 6 hours. At KBVO, went with VCTS mention
with storms just north of KS border, and a TEMPO at KTUL/KRVS to
cover some potential for the remnants of central OK convection to
make it there. For the far NW AR sites, outflow from the SE KS
into SW MO storms is likely to push down into this area by 12Z or
so, with potential for MVFR or even IFR cigs behind it and spotty
showers. Synoptic cold front expected to advance south across the
region on Wednesday and inserted TEMPO or PROB30 groups to cover
potential for showers and storms with front. Some low MVFR/IFR
cigs may begin to affect some terminals toward the very end of
this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  59  75  57 /  80  70  10  10
FSM   86  66  78  61 /  50  80  30  10
MLC   84  62  73  60 /  40  80  30  10
BVO   76  56  73  54 /  90  70  10   0
FYV   81  61  75  55 /  70  80  20  10
BYV   79  60  73  54 /  70  80  20   0
MKO   80  60  73  58 /  60  80  20  10
MIO   77  57  73  53 /  90  80  10   0
F10   82  60  72  58 /  50  80  20  10
HHW   88  65  78  63 /  20  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ054>057-059-064.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Northwest of a Bartlesville to Pawnee Line.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain focused this evening
near a slow moving frontal boundary from southern Kansas into
western Oklahoma. A few of these storms may drift into parts of
Osage and Pawnee counties this evening before weakening. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather threats.

Late this evening and overnight, storms out west will likely
organize into one or more convective complexes, and move east into
eastern Oklahoma and possibly northwest Arkansas by late tonight.
While most of these storms will likely be sub-severe, a limited
severe threat may linger overnight as these storms advance east
into our area.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with storms tonight,
which may result in some localized flooding issues across parts of
northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Wednesday
across the region as the cold front stalls over the northern
part of northeast Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances are forecast to
continue through Wednesday night and then begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast during the day Thursday as the frontal
boundary finally exits. A limited severe potential may again be
possible for parts of the region Wednesday. Periods of heavy
rainfall will also remain possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances quickly return Friday
through the start of the next work week across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in response to a series of upper
level disturbances pushing across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OKZ064-065-010815-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
233 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Creek and
Okfuskee Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 232 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles west of Avery to 2 miles east of Prague
to 3 miles west of Maud. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Okemah...
Okfuskee...                       Drumright...
Boley...                          Depew...
Paden...                          Bearden...
Castle...                         Shamrock...
Welty...                          Milfay...
Mason...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and 220.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 196.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9662 3611 9640 3557 9620 3529 9635
      3529 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650
      3545 9655 3544 9657 3541 9654 3539 9654
      3541 9658 3540 9660 3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 257DEG 28KT 3589 9680 3549 9665 3513 9684

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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