Snow Squall Warning 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 842 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

The arctic front continues to blast south through the CWA this
morning. It's currently on a line from Durant to just outside of
Fort Smith. Along the front areas of freezing drizzle have been
common and are expected to continue. Accordingly, the Winter
Weather Advisory was expanded into Pushmataha and Choctaw
Counties. North of the front, temperatures have plummeted as
expected, with current readings of 5-10F from Tulsa north. Wind
gusts of 30-40 mph north of the cold front have been common, with
wind chill values of 0 to -15F from Tulsa north. These bitter cold
temperatures and wind chills will shift south and east throughout
the morning and early afternoon.

Looking ahead, a band of heavier snowfall is moving into northeast
OK. This should bring snow totals of 1-3" in and north of Tulsa
(heaviest by the KS border), with lesser amounts ranging from a
dusting up to an inch or so south to the Red River. In northwest
Arkansas the highest snow totals will be along the MO border, with
amounts trending down towards Fort Smith. Blowing snow is already
being observed in many locations. This is expected to continue
into the early afternoon.

Snow will cease during the early afternoon hours in OK and by mid
afternoon in AR, but very cold temperatures and low wind chills
due to strong winds will persist, with values as low as 20F below
zero. Cloud cover will also begin to thin out by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Bitterly cold conditions will continue behind the front tonight
with dangerous wind chills falling 20 to 25 degrees below zero by
Friday morning. A wind chill warning remains in effect for NE
OK/NW AR with an advisory further south across SE OK/WC AR. Winds
will begin to slowly subside Friday into Friday night, but wind
chills will likely remain below zero with single digit lows
Saturday morning.

Surface high will begin to shift east on Christmas day with temperatures
climbing above freezing in the afternoon outside of any snow cover.
Warming trend still expected into the early to middle part of the
next week but how much is still somewhat in question. Another
upper trough will dive southeast into the central Plains on
Monday. ECMWF is slower/deeper with upper trough and associated
cold front, which would keep temperatures cooler than current MEX
guidance would suggest. NBM remains a good compromise between the
two and a good starting point for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Light snow continues at most TAF sites at this hour. Snow will
wrap up for OK locations by 18-19Z and AR locations by 20-21Z.
Areas with snowfall will continue to see low CIGS of 1-2 kft with
VIS reductions down to 1/4 mile in the heaviest snow. CIGS will
rise and thin during the afternoon hours with just a few high
clouds after 00-01Z. Winds will remain gusty out of the north this
afternoon with gusts of 25-35 kts being common. Speeds will
gradually diminish overnight but remain gusty into Friday out of
the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   17   2  17   6 /  70   0   0   0
FSM   40   4  18  10 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   38   2  19   9 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   11  -1  17   4 /  80   0   0   0
FYV   38  -3  14   3 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   38  -3  11   3 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   33   2  17   7 /  60   0   0   0
MIO   16  -3  12   1 /  90   0   0   0
F10   26   2  19   8 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   41   6  20  14 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Friday for OKZ054>064-067>069.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-
     053>076.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
552 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

WINTER WEATHER.
    ICE / SNOW ACCUMULATION.
    RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

	WIND CHILL.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A strong arctic cold front will continue sweeping through the
region today. Areas of freezing rain are likely initially along
the front before transitioning to snow. With temperatures rapidly
falling into the teens, roads will likely flash freeze in areas,
creating slick and dangerous driving conditions. Winds gusting to
around 45 mph will also make travel more difficult. Travel
is not recommended this morning across northeast Oklahoma due
to the slick conditions. Numerous wrecks have already occurred.

Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected with the
highest amounts along the Oklahoma, Kansas border and in the
higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas near the Missouri border.
The wintry precipitation will likely begin shifting east of northwest
Arkansas later this afternoon, however roads will remain slick in
spots with blowing snow.

Bitterly cold conditions will continue behind the front tonight
with dangerous wind chills falling 20 to 25 degrees below zero by
Friday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind and Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
SATURDAY...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Dangerous wind chills will continue with indices 20 to 25 degrees
below zero expected across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Friday morning. Winds will subside by Saturday, but very
cold temperatures will persist. Temperatures will begin to rebound
early next week back to near and above normal values.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders should finalize preparations
for a period of bitterly cold weather continuing through the Christmas
holiday weekend. Community shelters may become necessary due to
the dangerous wind chills. An increased risk of water pipe
ruptures may develop with forecast low temperatures in the single
digits Friday, Saturday and potentially Sunday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

OKZ054>063-067>069-221800-
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita,
Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, Wagoner,
Tahlequah, and Stilwell
912 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

...Moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow to significantly reduce
visibilities in northeast Oklahoma through Noon...

Moderate to heavy snow is moving across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, mainly to the north of Highway 412, the leading edge of
which is moving to the east at 40 mph. Expect considerable blowing
snow due to northerly winds gusting up to 45 mph at times. The
combination of higher snowfall rates and gusty winds will reduce
visibilities to under a mile and possibly as low as a quarter mile
in spots. Expect travel to be difficult, and if at all possible,
avoid travel. If you must travel, slow down, use caution and pack
an emergency kit.

In Arkansas, for the latest road conditions call 1-800-245-1672
or go to idrivearkansas.com. In Oklahoma, for the latest road
conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to okRoads.org.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-072>076-221800-
Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville,
Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith,
Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton,
and Poteau
947 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

...Road conditions expected to quickly deteriorate across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, including the Interstate 40 and
49 corridors...

A strong Arctic cold front will sweep through east central and
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Noon, with
areas of freezing rain immediately following the front. With
temperatures rapidly falling into the teens, roads may flash
freeze, creating slick and dangerous driving conditions. Winds
gusting to around 45 mph can also be expected, making travel more
difficult. The freezing rain will transition to snow later this
morning.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Roads can freeze over quickly
as temperatures plummet behind the Arctic cold front.

In Arkansas, for the latest road conditions call 1-800-245-1672
or go to idrivearkansas.com. In Oklahoma, for the latest road
conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to okRoads.org.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1022 AM CST THU DEC 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     SNOW             4 N BIXBY               36.01N 95.88W
12/22/2022  E1.0 INCH        TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     SNOW             4 ESE CATOOSA           36.16N 95.69W
12/22/2022  M1.8 INCH        ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

            DRIFTS TO 6 INCHES.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1038 AM CST THU DEC 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     SNOW             4 SSE JENKS             35.97N 95.94W
12/22/2022  M1.0 INCH        TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            SNOWFALL MEASURED NEAR 131ST AND HARVARD.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CST THU DEC 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             6 ENE OWASSO            36.31N 95.76W
12/22/2022  M1.0 INCH        ROGERS             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EJC