Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 746 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

Cold front, currently surging into far northwest Oklahoma this
evening, will overtake dry line and move into northeast Oklahoma by
late evening. Line of storms are still expected along front with
severe weather likely, especially near the Oklahoma/Kansas line.
Moderate instability, coupled with 50 kt deep layer shear and cold
temperatures aloft (-15 deg C), will support hail at least to the
size of golf balls and damaging winds. Also can not rule out an
isolated tornado or two as 0-1km shear increases into the +40 kt
range in low level jet axis. The severe threat will begin to
decrease as convective line moves south of I-44 with a weakening
trend as atmosphere begins to stabilize. Overall forecast looks on
track but will continue to tweak hourly grids given latest trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Aside from lingering shower/storm potential across far south and
east Saturday morning, the rest of the day will be quiet with
northwest winds and drier air. Dry conditions will prevail
through most of Sunday as well before another stout upper system
promotes a northward moving boundary back across the area Sunday
night into Monday. This scenario should offer more widespread
showers and storms Sunday night with a locally heavy rain threat.
By Monday, depending on eventual location of warm front and degree
of airmass recovery in wake of early precip, severe potential
will return to at least parts of the forecast area.

Consensus remains for Tuesday to be another "down" day before yet
another system approaches mid week, with similar progression of
cold front/warm front. By this time, model consensus regarding the
evolution of the upper levels becomes considerably less, but the
bottom line is potential for more severe weather and heavy
rainfall will continue through the later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

TSRA along a cold front moving into NE OK will impact all sites
between 06z-12z, with a period of MVFR vsbys/cigs. Gusty south
winds will continue ahead of the front, with winds becoming
westerly once the front passes. Behind the front, a period of MVFR
cigs may linger for a few hours across the AR sites, otherwise
VFR elements will prevail for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  50  79  59 /   0   0   0  70
FSM   79  53  82  61 /  50   0   0  50
MLC   79  51  81  62 /  30   0   0  60
BVO   76  48  78  57 /   0   0   0  70
FYV   78  49  79  58 /  40   0   0  50
BYV   77  51  77  57 /  30   0   0  40
MKO   76  50  79  59 /  20   0   0  60
MIO   74  48  75  56 /  10   0   0  60
F10   77  50  79  61 /  10   0   0  60
HHW   81  54  82  64 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
924 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
924 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NE OK...

.DAY ONE...Remainder of this evening through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 10 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...North of I-40.
    ONSET...After 10 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma, north of I-44.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into portions of
northeast Oklahoma by late evening along a southward moving cold
front. A few of these storms will likely be severe, especially near
the Oklahoma, Kansas border with hail to the size of golf balls,
damaging winds and a limited tornado threat. The severe threat will
begin to decrease during the overnight hours as the line of storms
moves south of I-44 and slowly weakens.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A chance of storms may continue on Saturday across far southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with drier and cooler conditions
overspreading the region late Saturday through Sunday.
A highly unsettled weather pattern is forecast next week. Conditions
will likely support several episodes of severe weather and heavy
rainfall. The current forecast suggests Monday and late Wednesday
into Thursday as the favored time frames for the most widespread
severe weather coverage. However details will change with updated
forecasts. Remain weather aware next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.