Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

A cold frontal boundary will begin to move into northeastern
Oklahoma over the next several hours and continue to move quickly
across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by this
afternoon. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible
along the front this morning, with best chances being across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A couple of storms
could pose a marginal severe risk later this morning, with large
hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats, though
instability remains limited ahead of the front. Storms are not
expected to last much into the afternoon as the front sweeps
through the area and much drier air streams in behind it. Gusty
northerly winds will also develop behind the front this afternoon,
with gusts near 30 mph possible. The gusty winds, combined with
the dry air and ongoing drought conditions will lead to some
increased fire weather potential this afternoon, especially in
areas that don't see any meaningful precipitation.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Following the front tonight, cooler and drier air will settle over
the region as lows range from near 40 to the upper 40s. Mainly
clear and dry conditions will be on tap for the rest of the work
week and into the first part of the weekend. Gusty northerly winds
will once again be common on Thursday afternoon...again leading to
an increase in the fire weather danger. A warming trend will
commence on Friday and Saturday as southerly flow again develops
ahead of the next approaching frontal boundary. Highs well above
normal are expected on Friday and Saturday.

The next front still looks to be on track to enter the region
sometime Saturday afternoon. Fairly good agreement exists in the
guidance for shower and thunderstorm chances increasing Saturday
evening and overnight along and north of the frontal boundary as
it slowly progresses south across the region. Better chances look
to be across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas where
better moisture will reside. A few storms could be strong on
Saturday afternoon and evening if enough moisture can return
ahead of the front. Below normal temps and dry conditions are
expected through the rest of this forecast behind this front as
surface high pressure slowly builds in through Wednesday morning.
There is some potential that some frost/freeze headlines could be
needed in some locations by next week following the weekend
front.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
LLWS will continue for the next couple of hours across SE OK/NW
AR ahead of cold front in low level jet axis. Frontal boundary
expected to move to near the I-44 corridor in the 13-14Z time
frame. Previous forecast generally on track with a brief period of
showers/thunderstorms potentially impacting NW AR TAF sites around
mid morning with FROPA. Could see brief IFR visibilities/MVFR
ceilings with the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a few scattered
showers will be possible this morning. Gusty north winds expected
behind the front with winds decreasing from north to south this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  47  75  46 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   85  49  77  46 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   85  47  77  45 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   78  43  74  40 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   79  41  72  40 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   78  45  70  43 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   80  44  74  42 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   75  43  70  40 /  60   0   0   0
F10   82  46  76  44 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   88  50  80  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Fat Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Through Midday.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the region this morning, quickly
pushing southeast of the area by later this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary as it moves
through, particularly across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this morning. Storms could be strong to marginally
severe, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, though some
storms could produce some hail as well. Storms will quickly push
east of the area by this afternoon.

Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the front this afternoon
along with much drier surface air filtering in. THis will increase
the fire danger threat this afternoon as the drought continues
across the region. THe worst conditions are expected across
northeastern Oklahoma where winds will be strongest as well as in
the forested timber in southeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Dry and windy conditions are forecast again on Thursday, again
leading to an increased fire weather threat across the area. The
fire threat will continue into the weekend as moisture remains
limited and temperatures begin to warm. Winds will be a little
lighter on Friday and Saturday which will help mitigate the fire
conditions somewhat. ANother cold front is expected to approach on
Saturday afternoon, bringing more chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the latter half of the weekend. Much cooler and
dry weather is expected behind the front for the first part of
next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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