Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
130 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Surface low currently moving into portions of northeast Oklahoma, located
west of Tulsa, with frontal boundary extending southwest into west-
central Oklahoma. Heat advisory continues for much of eastern Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas with heat indices topping out in the 105
to 110 degree range in some locations.

Focus quickly shifts to the severe weather potential late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Areas across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas have already become moderately unstable this afternoon in zone
of stronger differential heating. Enhanced CU field has developed across
aforementioned area and expect widely scattered strong to severe storms
to develop by late afternoon as strong surface heating continues. As
mentioned in previous forecast discussion, inverted-V soundings with
DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg suggest damaging downburst winds are
likely in the stronger storms. Also, with deep layer shear increasing
by this evening, could see one or two supercell structures with
large hail possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Severe weather threat will begin to decrease by mid to late evening
as atmosphere starts to stabilize and as precipitation becomes
increasingly elevated as front sags south overnight.

Lingering showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will likely
persist on Wednesday, including a few strong storms possible near
the Red River as cold front stalls over the ARKLATX region. At least
some break from the excessive heat expected, although a slow warming
trend is still expected Thursday into Friday with humidity levels
increasing.

Another frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Saturday
as upper low moves into Great Lakes region. Although there is some
precip timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF, decent rain chances
will persist over the weekend into early next week as boundary stalls
over the area with a series of weak upper level disturbances in zonal
flow aloft. In addition, with the expected cloud cover, high temperatures
should remain a few degrees below normal, which is generally a good
thing mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

VFR conditions will prevail early in the forecast, with
deteriorating conditions spreading into NE OK and NW AR later this
evening and especially into Wednesday morning. A cold front
located near KS/OK border and outflow boundary lying across NW AR
will focus sct t-storms by late afternoon (~22z) with greater
coverage across NW AR. Any such storms may produce strong and
gusty winds. Convection should become more widespread N of the
front later tonight into Wed morning with widespread MVFR
conditions expected and at least periodic IFR mainly at NE OK and
NW AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  81  67  86 /  40  40  10  10
FSM   73  82  68  87 /  50  50  20  10
MLC   73  88  67  83 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   69  79  64  87 /  50  30   0   0
FYV   67  77  60  84 /  70  70  10  10
BYV   66  73  60  83 /  80  70  10   0
MKO   71  80  65  82 /  40  40  20  10
MIO   67  77  61  85 /  70  50   0   0
F10   70  84  66  83 /  30  30  20  20
HHW   75  96  69  81 /  10  40  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
502 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
502 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Through Mid Evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the evening
hours along and north of a frontal boundary that will slowly work
it's way to the south through the night. Storms this evening will
have the potential for some strong, damaging wind gusts and
possibly some small hail across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. A low chance exist for a brief tornado as well, in close
proximity to the frontal boundary or any other outflow boundaries
that interact with a storm. More widespread storms are expected
overnight with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flooding of low lying areas in northwest Arkansas.

Heat index values around will improve across the area this evening as
the sun sets.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The potential for showers and storms will continue into Thursday
as the cold front continues to affect the area. Locally heavy
rains will continue to be possible during this time.

After dry conditions on Friday, the chances of showers and storms return
over the weekend and into early next week as a another cold front moves
into the area and stalls out. With several rounds of showers and storms
likely during this time, heavy rainfall totals are possible.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

OKZ063-068-069-162200-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
429 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Delaware,
northwestern Adair and northeastern Cherokee Counties through 500 PM
CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Leach, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Oaks...                           Twin Oaks...
Leach...                          Scraper...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 9466 3600 9471 3611 9503 3616 9503
      3616 9501 3625 9501 3631 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 288DEG 17KT 3620 9498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

OKZ054-055-162300-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
523 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Osage
and northern Washington Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Bartlesville Municipal Airport, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...
Bartlesville Municipal Airport...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 9626 3691 9610 3686 9582 3665 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 284DEG 15KT 3679 9607

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

OKZ057-162300-
Craig OK-
525 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Craig
County through 600 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
southwest of Bluejacket, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Bluejacket...
Pyramid Corners...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 286 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9530 3684 9529 3685 9500 3662 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 278DEG 16KT 3676 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH