Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Forecast area currently has scattered storms on its periphery
with early day precip and cloud cover helping maintain stronger
inhibition thus far this evening across the local region. Severe
storms ongoing across south central KS / northern OK likely pose
the higher chance of spreading into the region later tonight,
however a lack of storm coalescence thus far should favor more
isolated coverage and lesser overnight duration. Otherwise, the
trend within short term guidance along with prevailing and
strengthening inhibition should further limit overnight coverage
and precip chances have been lowered. Remainder of forecast
elements are on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

After a bit of a lull in the thunderstorm chances on Saturday, the
potential for storms is forecast to increase on Sunday as a mid-level
shortwave moves across the central Plains and pushes a cold front
through the area. Some of these storms could be severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main concern. Dry conditions are
forecast Monday in the wake of the frontal boundary that is forecast to
stall near the Red River. However, the chances of showers and
storms will return to portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the front moves
back north across the area as a warm front.

The next chance for any showers and storms will come Wednesday night
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak mid-level
shortwave traverses the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception
of some patchy fog possible through early morning at some sites,
particularly the northwest Arkansas sites. A stray storm or two
can also not be ruled out completely, but confidence in affecting
any one terminal is small. winds will remain light and variable
throughout the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  89  62 /   0  10  30  30
FSM   89  66  90  65 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   88  65  90  64 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   87  62  89  58 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   87  62  88  61 /  10  10  20  40
BYV   83  61  86  60 /  10  10  20  50
MKO   86  64  88  62 /   0  10  20  30
MIO   84  61  85  58 /   0  10  30  40
F10   87  64  89  63 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   89  66  91  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Overnight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma, west of state highway 99.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered storms may continue to develop late this
afternoon across southeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas.
Strong instability resides across portions of this region and
a limited risk of severe weather would exist with mature storms.
A focus for evening into overnight storms will be along a weak
cold front draped across south central Kansas into western Oklahoma.
Storms which develop across this region have access to strong
instability and would support severe weather potential into
the late night hours with any well developed storm or larger
storm complex primarily across northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm chances return Sunday in association with a nearby
frontal boundary along with a limited to elevated risk of severe
weather, especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Low thunderstorm chances will persist near
the Kansas and Missouri borders through the middle of next week,
along with some severe weather potential.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.