Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Potential for significant severe weather will continue to increase
over the next few hours across parts of northeast OK, generally US
75 to the west, and to a lesser degree for points east and
southeast later this evening.

Cool and stable boundary layer from overnight/morning showers and
storms has held the warm front surge at bay somewhat, but robust
airmass response has occurred over western OK and has commenced in
parts of southeast OK where mid-upper 60s dew points have
returned. Given the strength of low level flow and quality and
depth of moisture to the south expect this to continue surging
north over the next few hours. Eventual location of warm front
will be key for sig severe threat.

Meanwhile the dry line was located over far western OK and cold
front was surging south. Some early development of convection has
begun across NW OK in response near front/dry line intersection
and this will likely become severe quickly. Initial supercell
mode will be favored with CAMs maintaining a consistent signal of
a 2-3 hour period of more discrete mode, with upscale growth
around 00z as these storms approach eastern OK. These initial
discrete storms should have the greater potential for significant
tornadoes, however with a developing QLCS system encountering an
increasingly unstable airmass with ample low level shear, the
tornado threat will persist through much of NE OK into the evening
along with potentially higher end damaging wind potential within
bowing segments.

Also, not to be overlooked, there remains at least some potential
for storm development near the warm front across SE OK int WC AR
over the next few hours, with instability and shear supportive of
all modes of severe weather. Lower confidence in this occurring,
but some CAM guidance along with 12z NAM makes this at least worth
consideration.

With a cold pool driven MCS expected to sweep south relatively
quick, along with the faster movement of cold front later this
evening, the threat of widespread heavy rainfall should be
mitigated enough to leave the existing flash flood watch for
tonight. Localized potential for excessive rainfall is possible
though as at least transient rainfall rates of an inch or two per
hour are likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Most of the storms will exit the area before 12z, with a more
stable and cooler airmass spreading over the area Tuesday. This
will be a short respite however as next upper system already
moving across Pac NW this afternoon. Moisture transport will re-
commence Tuesday night with at least scattered convection
returning as warm front begins to lift back north. Warm sector
expansion within sheared environment will again yield severe
weather potential, possibly significant, though this will largely
be determined by eventual warm frontal placement and timing of
upper wave, which are still uncertain. Given another round of
significant rainfall however, the flooding threat will likely be
higher by this time and another flood watch will most surely be
needed for Wed and Wed night.

Storm chances linger into Thursday to some degree, with
continuing spread in the mid range guidance lending more
uncertainty. By Friday and Saturday mid level ridging should
result in quiet period before another trough sets up to the west.
Some storm chances will return by Sun/Mon as a result with
temperatures on the warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Mature line of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep through
the northeast OK sites through 01-02Z and into northwest AR/southeast
OK 03-05Z. Expect widespread MVFR cigs, with localized IFR conditions
with the heavier thunderstorms. Breezy northwesterly winds will
develop behind the line of storms as the cold front surges southeast.
Should see some improvement in cigs by late Tuesday morning and into
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  67  53  73 /  80   0  20  80
FSM   56  71  58  74 / 100  10  20  60
MLC   50  67  56  77 / 100  10  20  70
BVO   46  66  50  71 /  70   0  20  80
FYV   52  68  52  73 / 100  10  20  60
BYV   52  65  51  68 / 100  10  20  50
MKO   49  66  54  72 / 100   0  20  70
MIO   49  64  49  70 /  80   0  20  70
F10   48  67  55  74 /  90   0  20  80
HHW   56  71  60  80 /  80  20  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ058-063.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...Severe Weather Threat Increases This Evening...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A few scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible across
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas over the next few hours
near and south of a warm front draped across the area. The threat
of more widespread severe thunderstorms will increase over the
next couple of hours and storms move into the region from the
west. A line or broken line of storms will move into northeaster
Oklahoma in advance of a southward progressing cold front this
evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, though strong
low level shear will allow for a tornado risk to persist mainly
across northeast Oklahoma through about 10 PM. The line is
expected to quickly move southeast across the CWA and gradually
weaken throughout the night. Additional locally heavy rainfall on
top of what fell this morning could also lead to some flash
flooding of low lying and urban areas especially. The heaviest
rainfall totals are expected across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
          Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will diminish early Tuesday with the next
storm system impacting the area on Wednesday. Storms will increase
early Wednesday with a limited risk of severe weather. Conditions
will become increasingly unstable and favorable for severe
weather during the day Wednesday. Storms which initially develop
west of the region Wednesday afternoon will spread eastward
overnight with a risk of severe weather and flash flooding. Storm
chances lessen on Thursday with dry weather expected over the
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TORNADO          MONROE                  34.99N 94.52W
05/02/2022                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN
            ACROSS ROADS AND HOUSES DAMAGED IN AND
            AROUND MONROE. RADAR CONFIRMED. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             HARTFORD                35.02N 94.39W
05/02/2022  E1.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL HAIL IN WEST
            HARTFORD.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

ARZ020-030030-
Franklin AR-
644 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Franklin
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
south of Branch, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Charleston...                     Branch...
Fort Chaffee...                   Caulksville...
Etna...                           Roseville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 9372 3537 9375 3539 9379 3539 9380
      3531 9381 3532 9392 3523 9392 3523 9402
      3521 9403 3521 9405 3520 9406 3526 9408
      3528 9408 3543 9371 3538 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 243DEG 25KT 3524 9396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
708 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

OKZ054>056-030045-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
708 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Osage,
northern Washington and northwestern Nowata Counties through 745 PM
CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Bigheart, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Copan...                          Wann...
Elgin...                          Bigheart...
Osage Hills State Park...         Hulah...
Sunset Lake...                    Wah Sha She State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9569 3693 9565 3671 9621 3700 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 240DEG 47KT 3684 9626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             3 ESE TULSA             36.12N 95.87W
05/02/2022  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
801 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             3 ENE BROKEN ARROW      36.07N 95.74W
05/02/2022  E0.75 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS