Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

983 
WWUS54 KTSA 220119
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
819 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

OKC023-127-220145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220322T0145Z/
Pushmataha OK-Choctaw OK-
819 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES...

At 819 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Snow to near Goodland, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Soper...                          Kent...
Goodland...                       Messer...
Grant...                          Ord...
Speer...                          Dela...
Gay...                            

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551 3388 9554
      3393 9556 3394 9560 3391 9564 3388 9570
      3390 9575 3398 9575 3407 9571 3414 9570
      3430 9562 3429 9545 3387 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 218DEG 72KT 3436 9546 3401 9555 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

170 
WWUS54 KTSA 220139 RRA
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

OKC023-127-220149-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220322T0145Z/
Pushmataha OK-Choctaw OK-
839 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551 3388 9554
      3393 9556 3394 9560 3391 9564 3388 9570
      3390 9575 3398 9575 3407 9571 3414 9570
      3430 9562 3429 9545 3387 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 249DEG 41KT 3444 9520 3409 9529 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 358 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

The widespread rain and scattered thunderstorm event was ongoing
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
This was in response to elevated frontogenetic forcing interacting
with warm advection ahead of a mid/upper level low currently
moving into West Texas/Texas Panhandle. At mid afternoon...the
main area of instability remained south of the Red River...though
a couple of strong storms will remain possible into this evening.

The mid/upper level low is progged to lift northeast into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma by midnight. As
the wave lifts northeast, instability looks to also lift slightly
north of the Red River allowing for a window of severe weather
potential across mainly Southeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds and
large hail would be the primary threats. A very low...though non-
zero...tornado potential could also be possible with forecast
storm relative helicity values greater 300 m2/s2. The greater
potential for severe looks to be before 03-04z before a mid level
dry slot spreads from southwest to northeast across the region and
into the CWA. In response...the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm
chances should begin to shift east and northeast and exit the
majority of the CWA after 06-07z tonight. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible mainly over parts of
Northwest Arkansas overnight...while the main cold front nears the
CWA from thew west. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches through
tonight is forecast. With the majority of the precip tapering off
overnight...flooding concerns at this time look to be localized.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

The cold front moves eastward through the region during the day
Tuesday...while the upper level trof axis remains in place across
the region. Ahead of the front...temps from overnight tonight into
Tuesday looks to hold in the 50s and warm into the 60s. Behind the
front...temps look to fall into the 40s...mainly along and west of
Hwy 75 in Northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning...and then begin to
spread eastward across the CWA Tuesday afternoon. Thus...have gone
with a non-diurnal temp curve for the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances as well as slight chances for thunderstorms will
remain possible Tuesday...mainly across far Northeast Oklahoma
into Northwest Arkansas as a surface low moves east northeast
into Southern Missouri Tuesday afternoon. Instability looks to be
quite limited and not currently anticipating severe potentials for
the CWA. Rain chances increase Tuesday night and into Wednesday
while a couple secondary vort max/upper lows drops into the region
and rounds the base of the upper trof. Depending how much surface
temperatures cool Wednesday morning/dont warm Wednesday
afternoon...increasing moisture within the dendritic growth zone
and a temp profile aloft below freezing could suggest some snow
flakes trying to mix down to the surface during the day Wednesday.
Along the Kansas border and also within the high terrain of far
Northwest Arkansas would have the higher potential for this to
occur. For now...uncertainty remains with how quick the overall
precip should lift out of the CWA as the upper level trof axis
finally begins to exit to the east. Thus...will hold off on
mentioning in the grids but it is something to keep an eye on.

Upper low finally exits Wednesday night with clearing skies from
southwest to northeast Thursday. In the wake of the departing
system...a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build out west
and begin to push into the Plains Friday. A weak disturbance looks
to ride down the eastern slope of the ridge Friday night and
Saturday before the ridge moves into the Plains for the weekend.
Limited moisture should keep this passage of this wave dry. With
the ridge in place for the weekend...gusty southerly winds return
Sunday with much warmer temperatures. These conditions look to
continue for the first part of next week ahead of another
disturbance that may try to push into the Plains at the far end of
this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Mostly MVFR conditions will continue this evening, with occasional
VFR cigs/vsbys within heavier showers/thunderstorms. Showers and
storms will continue for the next few hours before dry slot moves
into the area tonight bringing an end to the rain and raising
cigs somewhat to possible VFR conditions across eastern Oklahoma
overnight. Occasionally gusty winds will gradually switch from
easterly to southerly to northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon as a
surface low/frontal boundary push through the area. A few showers
with isolated thunder could be possible tomorrow afternoon along
the frontal boundary. MVFR cigs are also likely to build back in
on the backside of the upper low and cold front toward the end of
the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  55  39  50 /  80  30  40  20
FSM   54  67  39  50 / 100  40  30  20
MLC   52  58  39  53 /  80  20  20  10
BVO   49  54  37  49 /  80  50  40  20
FYV   53  66  36  45 / 100  50  50  40
BYV   54  67  39  43 /  90  60  50  50
MKO   52  62  37  48 / 100  20  40  20
MIO   52  65  38  44 / 100  60  60  40
F10   51  54  39  52 /  80  20  20  10
HHW   55  62  41  57 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and this will continue through
late evening. Storms will gradually end from west to east from
late evening through the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Severe storm potential will increase this evening primarily
far southeast Oklahoma and possibly into west central Arkansas.
Severe storms currently across north Texas will steadily spread
northeastward and could maintain intensity as they track into
southeast Oklahoma. The primary hazards will be large hail and
locally damaging winds. A very low tornado potential will also
be present across far southeast Oklahoma. The severe weather
risk will diminish after midnight as the stronger storms focus
further south and east.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas on Tuesday. A few storms may be strong
across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a marginal
hail threat. Cooler temperatures will persist through mid week, with
warmer temperatures expected by the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

OKZ067-068-070-071-074-211915-
Haskell OK-Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
149 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Haskell, northeastern McIntosh, southeastern Wagoner, west central
Cherokee and eastern Muskogee Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
southeast of Checotah, moving north at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Wagoner...
Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
Warner...                         Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Oktaha...                         Taft...
Rentiesville...                   Tullahassee...
Sequoyah State Park...            Keefeton...
Wainwright...                     Summit...
Redbird...                        Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 262 and
277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 9514 3524 9535 3528 9545 3530 9545
      3529 9547 3530 9550 3533 9557 3599 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 188DEG 74KT 3540 9545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
734 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

OKZ049-053-220100-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
734 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Pushmataha
and western Choctaw Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles northwest of Lane to 7 miles south of
Bennington. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Boswell...
Soper...                          Moyers...
Kosoma...                         Kellond...
Dunbar...                         Eubanks...
Darwin...                         Unger...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3392 9591 3395 9594
      3412 9594 3414 9596 3415 9598 3416 9578
      3450 9578 3451 9567 3459 9567 3460 9552
      3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 221DEG 57KT 3432 9603 3389 9601

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH