Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Breezy northwest winds have relaxed some overnight, although still
seeing a few gusts across southeast OK as the secondary surge of
cooler air drops south. Forecast soundings are showing a very
deep mixed layer across parts of northeast OK (to near 700mb),
with gusty northwest winds developing areawide by late morning.
Will go with a Wind Advisory for a few counties northwest of
Tulsa, and this may very well need to be expanded in coverage.
Very poor fire weather conditions will develop again along and
west of Highway 75, although temperatures look to remain a bit
below Red Flag Warning criteria.

Not out of the question to see a few sprinkles across far
northeast OK/northwest AR later this afternoon and into the
evening as a wave swings through the northwesterly flow aloft.
Otherwise, expect chilly temps tonight with lows mainly in the
mid/upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

The aforementioned wave will bring yet another surge of cooler air
for Friday, with highs in the 50s for northwest AR to lower 60s
across eastern OK. A widespread frost/freeze is likely by Saturday
morning as skies clear and winds diminish. Breezy south winds
quickly return for the weekend with highs rebounding into the mid
70s/lower 80s by Sunday.

The weather for early to mid next week continues to look unsettled
as active/moist southwesterly upper flow develops across the
southern Plains. A surface dryline will become established to our
west early next week, with severe storms possible Monday/Tuesday
and potentially into Wednesday depending on how quickly the upper
low kicks east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will be common today for
all terminals with some increasing mid level clouds across
northeast Oklahoma and especially northwest Arkansas sites. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period though.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  40  61  32 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   63  39  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   63  38  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  38  60  30 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   59  33  54  28 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   56  35  49  31 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   61  38  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  37  54  29 /  10  10   0   0
F10   62  39  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054-055-059.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late morning.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Northwest winds will increase and become gusty by late morning,
with a few gusts over 40 mph likely across parts of northeast
Oklahoma.

The gusty winds along with afternoon relative humidity values
between 20 and 30 percent will result in an elevated fire danger
threat for all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
poorest fire weather conditions will be along and west of Highway
75.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a cool Friday, breezy south winds and warmer weather will
return for the weekend. The airmass across the region will remain
dry, with fire weather concerns continuing.

An unsettled spring weather pattern develops for the first part
of next week. Thunderstorms chances return Monday and continue
through Wednesday. Some of these storms will likely become severe.
Details will be refined with later forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.