Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Tulsa, OK

621 
WWUS84 KTSA 291909
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
209 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

OKZ054-059-300000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220330T0000Z/
Osage-Pawnee-
209 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Oklahoma, Osage and Pawnee counties.

* WIND...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Afternoon humidity 40 to 45 percent.

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures around 80 degrees.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that a dangerous combination of weather
conditions and dry vegetation is expected within 24 hours,
favoring rapid growth and spread of any wildfires. The primary
weather factors include stronger winds, lower humidities, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Surface dewpoints are running 10-20F higher than this time
yesterday, with significantly milder temps expected as
south/southeast winds stay up through the night. Forecast in
good shape for the remainder of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

A windy and warm day is expected Tuesday, with temperatures
warming into the 70s to near 80 despite considerable cloud cover.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop to our west Tuesday
evening as a strong upper level storm system approaches the
region. This activity is expected to congeal into a QLCS overnight
that will sweep across our forecast area. This will be a low
instability/high shear event, so damaging winds and isolated
tornadic spinups will be the primary severe weather threats in our
area.

Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into
Wednesday as the center of the upper system moves over our area,
and some small hail may even be possible at that time.

Another storm system will affect the area late Friday and Friday
night bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Yet
another system looks to affect the area early next week, but
details on this system are still murky at this point. Overall
temperatures from Thursday through Monday will generally be near
or slightly below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

VFR conditions will continue through most of the night with
strengthening southerly low level jet resulting in LLWS at all
sites. MVFR ceilings will develop across southeast OK Tuesday
morning and may eventually spread into the rest of the area for a
short time. South winds will increase Tuesday with sfc gusts 25-35
knots possible over NE OK and NW AR. LLWS will once again develop
after 00z Wednesday with sfc winds remaining gusty out of the
south. A complex of strong storms will move into eastern OK,
mainly after 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  56  62  37 /  10  90  70   0
FSM   78  59  68  38 /  10  90  90   0
MLC   77  57  66  38 /  10 100  60   0
BVO   80  53  61  33 /  10  90  70   0
FYV   74  56  63  32 /  10  90  90  10
BYV   73  57  63  35 /  10  90 100  10
MKO   77  57  65  36 /  10 100  80   0
MIO   76  54  61  34 /  10  90  90  10
F10   77  57  64  37 /  10 100  60   0
HHW   77  57  69  40 /  10  90  60   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
The combination of gusty southeasterly winds, warm temperatures,
and low relative humidity values will yield a limited fire weather
potential this afternoon, especially across portions of eastern
Oklahoma west of Highway 75. Low level moisture will gradually
increase during the late afternoon and evening however which will
help in low level RH recovery this evening and overnight, keeping
conditions below critical.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
          High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong and gusty south winds are expected Tuesday with gusts of 35
to 40 mph likely across parts of eastern Oklahoma. Higher grassland
fire spread rates are likely as a result, however moisture will
continue to increase along with cloud cover to again keep
conditions from becoming critical.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Tuesday evening
through the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the primary
severe weather threat, with a limited potential for tornadoes
within the line of storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible.

Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will follow the cold front
Wednesday with a continued threat of thunderstorms. The next
chance of rain and thunderstorms will arrive late Friday into
Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.