Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Short term forecast on track this evening with no significant
changes anticipated. Hot conditions again expected on Tuesday,
including an elevated fire weather threat as gusty southwest winds
begin to increase. Update has been sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Some long-awaited relief form the hot and dry conditions is on the
way. But first, we have to get through a few more hot days.
Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of this stretch with sfc
boundary remaining to the north and a bit of a southwest component
to the low level wind fields. Many areas will see temps in the
105-109 range with some HI values exceeding 110 as well, and the
Excessive Heat Warning will be maintained. Fire weather
conditions will become more concerning across northeast OK
Tuesday afternoon with lower dew points, especially N of I-44 and
along/west of U.S. 75 where RH values may drop below 20%. Wind
speeds will not be overly strong, but in this environment any
fires can take off quickly without aid from the winds. Given the
volatile fuel situation, have issued a Fire Weather Watch
generally NW of I-44 for Tuesday.

By Wednesday the temperatures will back off slightly but may still
see a few spots around 105 for highs. A Heat Advisory will be
issued for Wed, noting that some areas may need an upgrade as dew
points could being to creep back up as well. There is a hint that
a few showers or storms could brush far northern areas Tue night,
with a better chance of re-development Wed afternoon across NE OK
and NW AR as sfc boundary drops a little farther south.

Upper ridge will undergo a more meaningful breakdown by Thu/Fri
with Cold front eventually pushing through. Thursday should be
less hot due to expanding precip coverage, but southern parts of
the area may need a heat advisory that day as well. More
substantial relief in the form of more widespread wetting rainfall
and notably cooler temperature will finally arrive for most of the
area by Friday, with the trend likely continuing into Saturday.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could bring some
heavy amounts as well.

Alas, this break will be fairly short-lived as the large upper
ridge shifts back over the plains next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

WS remark will be included at all sites except KMLC through 14z.
Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  105  84 107  82 / MMM   0   0  10
FSM  105  80 104  81 / MMM   0   0   0
MLC  102  79 104  79 / MMM   0   0   0
BVO  105  78 108  77 / MMM  10  10  10
FYV  101  76 102  76 / MMM   0  10  10
BYV  100  78 102  78 / MMM   0  10  10
MKO  104  79 104  79 / MMM   0   0   0
MIO  103  79 105  76 / MMM  10  10  20
F10  104  79 106  79 / MMM   0   0   0
HHW  101  79 101  78 / MMM   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-068-
     069-072-074>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     OKZ054>067-070-071-073.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for OKZ054>057-059>061-064.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
830 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
830 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is anticipated through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Very High Fire Weather and Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Extreme heat conditions with potential for heat stress impacts
will persist into the middle of the week with some improvement
after Wednesday. The continued hot and dry weather and an
increase in wind speeds will also lead to worsening fire weather
conditions.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night and Thursday
as a cold front approaches from the north. A more substantial
break from the heat is expected by Friday through the weekend,
with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing. The pattern of
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms may result in locally
heavy rainfall amounts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.