Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Key Messages:

- Flood threat continues through Wednesday morning

- Severe storms possible this afternoon/evening

A much needed break from showers and storms has occurred this
afternoon as the LLJ weakened and the surface boundary stalled out
across the forecast area. South and east of the boundary, dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s to low 70s with skies beginning to clear
across east-central Kansas. The surface boundary will continue to
sink south through the rest of this afternoon into the evening while
the 925-850mb front bisects the forecast area from northeast to
southwest. A weak shortwave and strengthening LLJ will lead to
addition shower and storm development this evening and overnight
especially for the southeastern half of the CWA. A few severe storms
are possible given MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 35-
45kts, but storm mode will likely become messy quickly as shear
vectors are oriented perpendicular to the boundaries. In any case,
stronger updrafts could produce severe hail and/or damaging wind
gusts. Flooding looks to be the main concern once again as storms
look to move over the same areas this evening and overnight. Much of
the area saw several inches of rain last night, so the grounds are
saturated and rivers are on the rise. As a result, the Flood Watch
has been extended until 7am Wednesday. While additional
precipitation builds in during the day Wednesday, instability looks
weak leading to mainly showers with a few embedded thunderstorms,
leading to lighter QPF. The Flood Watch may need to be extended into
the day Wednesday depending on how tonight's storms evolve and how
much additional rain is expected during the day Wednesday.

Drier and cooler air settles in on Thursday as a surface high moves
into the central Plains. Highs in the 70s on Thursday will reach
into the low 80s by the weekend. A couple of shortwaves eject across
the Plains this weekend bringing more chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

VFR to MVFR at all terminals through the TAF period with another
round of TS this evening into the overnight hours although these
storms may be more scattered, so timing and impacts are uncertain.
More rain is expected Wednesday; chances for lightning in this
round appear low but possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ024-026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Jones

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-012015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
312 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. Flooding is possible, along with a few strong to severe
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf