Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Key Points:

- Severe storms appear likely tonight. Damaging winds to 70 mph,
  hail to quarter size, a few tornadoes and very heavy rainfall
  will be the main threats with storms.

- Cooler temperatures by the end of the week and into the
  weekend, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s Saturday.

Early this afternoon, a surface low was deepening across southwest
Kansas, a warm front was draped across southern Nebraska and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s were moving into northeast
Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along the warm
front to the north, but this activity has been elevated and will
likely stay north of all but far northeast Kansas. The boundary
layer continues to destabilize across the warm sector, however, a
capping inversion remains, at least across eastern Kansas, as
sampled by the 19 UTC Topeka sounding. Some of the short- range
models indicate a little enhancing of the mid-level flow late
this afternoon. Associated ascent may be enough to spark an
isolated thunderstorm. If a storm develops in the warm sector this
afternoon it will likely become severe quickly with large hail
(at least golf ball size) the dominate threat, but all severe
hazards will be possible. The more likely scenario is the
development of an MCS later tonight as a cold front sweeps through
the area. CAMS are in good agreement with the development of an
MCS, but they vary wildly on the timing and placement of the MCS.
The most likely timeframe of storms tonight is between 11 pm
(starting west) and 4 am (ending east) and the most likely
location is north central and northeast Kansas. Winds up to 70 mph
will be the main threat with an MCS, but any embedded
supercellular structures will enhance the threat for hail and
tornadoes. While forward propagation of the MCS should be rather
fast (around 50 mph), heavy rain falling over already saturated
areas could lead to some flooding concerns. The MCS should exit
the area by the morning commute. A quiet and mild day should
follow.

A warm day is on tap for Thursday, with highs in the 90s as
compressional warming and warm-air advection develop ahead of
another cold front. A cold front will sweep through Thursday
night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Severe
weather isn't anticipated with this frontal passage at this time.
The front is currently favored to be south of our area by Friday
afternoon. This should keep the threat for severe storms (and
storms in general) south and east.

Much cooler temperatures are favored for the end of the week and
into the weekend. Lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s are favored
for Saturday. There are a few chances for showers/storms through
the beginning of next week, but the bulk of the longer term
forecast appears dry and cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

VFR expected initially with TSRA and timing being the main
uncertainty at all terminals. Initial line developed a few hours
early and could potentially impact KMHK between 00Z-02Z so
included a VCTS mention. Otherwise this line should remain north
of KTOP/KFOE with the line of TSRA developing over north central
KS being the main impact aft 05Z at KMHK and 07Z at KTOP/KFOE.
MVFR to possibly IFR or lower conditions are expected as the line
moves through and winds increase and veer to the west above 15
kts. Amendments may be needed on the slight chance that an
isolated storm develops through 03Z near KTOP/KFOE based on a
observations and short term analysis.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
701 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
701 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of scattered strong to severe storms will impact areas
mainly along and north of Interstate 70 through early evening. A
few of these storms are capable of becoming severe with large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a possible tornado. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through midnight for portions of
north central and portions of far northeast Kansas.

A line of severe storms will develop along a cold front across
Nebraska early this evening and then will move southeast across
the area Tonight and through the early morning hours of
Wednesday. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts to 70
mph, but isolated large hail around quarter size and a few
tornadoes embedded within the line will be possible, especially
across northeast KS during the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 W JUNCTION CITY       39.03N 96.92W
05/17/2022                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER IS ON K-18, 5 MILES WEST
            OF JUNCTION CITY LOOKING NORTH.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
854 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ023-024-180230-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-
854 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Pottawatomie and southwestern Jackson Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emmett, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belvue, Emmett and Delia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 400 AM CDT for northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9596 3922 9603 3921 9604 3920 9618
      3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624 3919 9626
      3919 9628 3933 9628 3941 9592 3923 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 234DEG 17KT 3925 9608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan