Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 pm CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

- Severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and extend
through the evening hours. Discrete supercells will be capable of
large hail and possible tornadoes. A line of storms will develop
during the evening hours with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the
line.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Monday afternoon
and evening.

This afternoon and Tonight: Early this afternoon a surface low was
located across west central KS with a dryline extending east
southeast through Russel, to east of Great Bend to west of Kingman.
An EML has overspread the warm sector however sfc heating heating,
convergence along the surface dryline and stronger ascent ahead
of a a shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Plains will
help to erode the capping inversion for a few discrete supercells
to develop along and ahead of the dryline across north central and
south central KS. The environment will be favorable for any
discrete supercells to produce large hail and possible tornadoes
given forecast hodographs that show clockwise looping in the
lowest 2 to 3KM. This will provide low-level horizontal vorticity
to be nearly parcel with the storm relative motions vectors.
Thus, any supercell may develop intense low-level rotation that
could produce a tornado. Even though surface dewpoints are only in
the lower 60s, H5 temperatures are around
-17 degree C providing over 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE. There are a few
 CAMs that show the cap ahead of the dryline not breaking but the
 latest HRRR that is usually more robust with CIN, shows discrete
 supercells developing northeast of Newton KS around 22Z and
 moving northeast into the TOP CWA by 7 PM, and into east central
 KS by 8 PM. The surface cold front across northwest KS will
 gradually overtake the dryline and cause a line of storms to
 develop across the western CWA. There may be a period during the
 late afternoon through the early evening hours across the western
 counties for the storms that develop ahead of the front to
 remain semi-discrete for an hour or two before transitioning into
 a linear line of the storms. I cannot rule out a possible
 tornado with any of the semi-discrete storms across north central
 KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours. This line
 will move east ahead of the cold front across northeast and east
 central KS and should move southeast of the CWA by 12 Midnight.
 Expect damaging wind gusts along the QLCS and since the sfc-3KM
 shear vectors will be nearly perpendicular to the line there may
 be a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the line through
 the mid and late evening hours.

Saturday through Sunday, the H5 trough across the Plains will lift
northeast into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. Another
upper trough will dig southeast across the western US Saturday
night. Expect cooler temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 60s along the NE border with
upper 60s expected across the southern counties. Highs on Sunday
will be warmer as the H5 ridge shifts east across the Plains. look
for maximum temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday night through Monday night, an upper trough across the
southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains late Monday.
Strong southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture
northward across the state. Isentropic lift may cause a few elevated
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning. We may see some
clearing Monday afternoon before a surface front shifts southeast
across the CWA. Surface convergence across along the front combined
with DCVA will provide sufficient lift for numerous showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon int Monday night. The vertical wind
shear combined with instability will be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms with the better chance across east central KS.

Tuesday through Wednesday, another upper level trough will dig
southeast across the western US into the southwest US. A downstream
ridge will move across the Plains. Expect cooler temperatures with
the highs in the 60s.

Wednesday night through Friday, the upper level trough across the
southwest US will slowly lift northeast. Expect chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The vertical shear and instability may be
sufficient on Thursday for a some stronger to severe storms. Cloud
cover and rain may keep highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

VFR to MVFR at all terminals today. Scattered Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move into the area early this
morning. Due to the scattered nature of storms, left only a
vicinity mention in the TAF for the morning. Ceilings will likely
fall to MVFR for much of the morning at all sites as a stratus
deck moves in. Clearing is possible later this afternoon for KMHK.
Winds will be gusty throughout the afternoon with thunderstorm
development expected this evening as a cold front moves through
the area after 00z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Jones

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
354 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
354 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms will be possible across the entire outlook area
late this afternoon through the early overnight hours. Afternoon
storms could initiate around after 4 PM, but will remain
isolated. All modes of severe weather will be possible with these
storms. A squall line will develop along the cold front, with the
main threats being large hail, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph,
and a few weak and brief tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through the evening hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ035-292230-
Dickinson-
500 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Dickinson
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Durham, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hope and Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 9727 3873 9699 3861 9710 3861 9737
      3869 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 214DEG 38KT 3850 9736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese