Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

A surface trough remains across north central Ks this evening with
a very high and mixed airmass along and east of the boundary. A
few updrafts are starting to develop just east of the boundary.
Analysis suggests MLCAPE values are between 2000 and 3000 J/kg
with little inhibition left. Deep layer shear is only around 40KT,
but the supercell storm early this afternoon was in an environment
that supposedly had less shear to work with. So there continues to
be a risk for severe weather into this evening with supercells
possible initially. The main question is whether storm intensity
will persist all the way into eastern KS as models show boundary
layer inhibition increasing between 03Z and 05Z. Large hail and
damaging winds remain the main concern. However effective SRH
could be over 200 m2/s2 across northern KS so a brief tornado is
in the realm of possibility.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Key Points:

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening

- Hot Sunday through Wednesday with near record temperatures

This afternoon, southwest flow aloft was present across the
Plains with a surface trough extending from southeast Nebraska
into central Kansas. A few strong storms have developed along a
weak convergence zone through Wabaunsee, Morris, and Lyon
counties. This activity has struggled to sustain itself, likely
due to weak lift, although a few storms have reached severe levels.
Additional development along this boundary is possible through
the afternoon with the potential for a couple more stronger
storms.

The better chances for severe storms come later this evening as
the surface trough pushes into north central Kansas with
sufficient convergence to spark additional thunderstorms. CAMs are
in decent agreement in this development occurring by 6-7pm along
or just west of a Marysville to Abilene line. Given 2000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE and effective shear around 30kts, a few strong to
severe storms are possible with damaging winds gusts and large
hail being the main hazards. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-
level hodographs especially closer to the surface trough which
could lead to a brief spin-up tornado. The window for this to
occur is fairly small, spanning from convective initiation to just
after sunset when the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
Diminishing instability after sunset could be offset by an
increasing LLJ which could sustain convection through midnight or
so before precipitation comes to an end.

Attention turns to the anomalous upper ridge that will park
itself over the southern and central Plains Sunday through
Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for
near-record temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday. Confidence
beyond Tuesday decreases as spread increase in guidance in how
fast a cold front and relief from the heat move in. The NBM
showcases this uncertainty with a 15-20 degree spread in high
temperatures on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Main concern is timing TS into the terminals. KMHK stands the
better chance of seeing a severe thunderstorm in the next couple
hours. Will use the CAMs as a first guess on timing, maybe
speeding things up an hour or so as storm development is already
taking place. Once the boundary layer stabilizes, storms should
diminish with VFR conditions prevailing into the daylight hours
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Record temps for Topeka
------------------------
Sep 18 warmest low: 76 (1893)
Sep 18 high: 101 (1925)

Sep 19 warmest low: 77 (1931)
Sep 19 high: 97 (1954)

Sep 20 warmest low: 75 (1895)
Sep 20 high: 98 (1980)

Sep 21 warmest low: 76 (1893)
Sep 21 high: 98 (1956)

Record temps for Concordia
---------------------------
Sep 18 warmest low: 76 (1947)
Sep 18 high: 100 (1931)

Sep 19 warmest low: 79 (1931)
Sep 19 high: 98 (1931)

Sep 20 warmest low: 74 (1895)
Sep 20 high: 96 (1893)

Sep 21 warmest low: 75 (1956)
Sep 21 high: 103 (2005)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-182000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
256 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Hail up to the size of quarters and winds up to 60 mph will
be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
946 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW JUNCTION CITY     38.96N 96.86W
09/17/2022                   GEARY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGN BLOWN DOWN ON US HIGHWAY 77.

&&

JW