Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
658 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Key Points:

- Heat builds again middle and late week, heat indices in the mid
90s to mid 100s most days

- Showers and storms tonight, otherwise mostly dry for the next week

Temperatures have stayed a bit cooler so far this afternoon thanks
to persistent cloud cover. Current temperatures are only in the 80s
for most, with a few readings near 90 south of I-70. This has kept
heat indices manageable, staying generally in the 90s so far. The
widespread clouds, along with a few embedded showers, are a remnant
of convection last night across Colorado, moving along our
stationary frontal boundary along I-70. Another factor keeping these
showers going is a shortwave trough moving southeast over Nebraska,
around the periphery of the strong ridge over the southern tier of
the CONUS. This shortwave will approach the area overnight tonight,
bringing in a weakening round of additional showers and storms south
from Nebraska late evening. Convection should be increasingly
elevated with time and southern extent. So while some gusty winds or
small hail can't be ruled out, the risk for strong to severe storms
drops off away from the Nebraska border. Showers and weak
thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the area after
midnight through early Sunday morning, bringing some light but still
needed rainfall.

Underneath the influence of the upper trough, temperatures tomorrow
will remain near average. A warming trend resumes Monday and
especially Tuesday as ridging rebuilds ahead of a stronger trough
moving into the Northern Plains. This trough will amp WAA ahead of
it, boosting 850 mb temperatures into the 26-29 C range by Tuesday.
Given the dry conditions and a modest pressure gradient ahead of a
surface front, there should be deep mixing that boosts high
temperatures into the low 100s across most of the area. Dewpoints
may only be in the mid 60s though, which will keep heat indices near
or just slightly above actual air temperatures. The weak front will
knock down temps a few degrees Wednesday, but warm conditions with
highs in the mid to upper 90s will continue through Friday.
Underneath the eastern half of the strong upper ridge, precipitation
chances will remain low, though can't rule out a few showers or
storms mid-week with weak shortwaves moving through the northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Expect VFR conditons through most of the next 24 hours. There is a
chance for thunderstorms across the terminals between 6Z through
11Z SUN. If a thunderstorm moves over the terminal, then there
may be a brief reduction in visibility down to MVFR categories due
to the heavier rainfall with any thunderstorm.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon across
north central and northeast Kansas. A better chance for
thunderstorms is expected overnight across much of the area, with
storms gradually weakening as they move from north to south. A few
of these storms could be strong to severe, most likely near the
Nebraska border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot weather is forecast to continue through much of next week.
Take precautions when outdoors for prolonged periods and check up
on family and neighbors that they are able to stay cool.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1006 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

KSZ008-170345-
Republic-
1006 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Republic
County through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1005 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ong to near Oak to 6 miles north of
Superior. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. These strong winds may occur
         before any rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Courtland, Republic and Munden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9748 3980 9756 3965 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 324DEG 43KT 4037 9787 4020 9794 4011 9810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Baerg

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