Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Key Points:

- Strong to severe storms will be possible very late tonight and
overnight.

- Increasing Temperatures into Sunday and Monday with highs in the
mid to upper 90s.

- Warm next week with a few chances for rain and thunderstorms.

As of 2 PM, mid-level water vapor imagery shows the presence of a
shortwave trough axis that has just begun to eject off of the lee
Rockies and extends from the western Dakotas to the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma. Two vorticity maximums are currently situated in
north-central Nebraska and northwestern Colorado will continue to
help generate convection along these areas and will have to be
watched as storms will move southeastward towards eastern Kansas.
Winds have continued to veer towards the south as a surface ridge
slides off towards the east. Ample moisture advection has been able
to make its way ahead of the aforementioned shortwave axis with
MLCAPE values 1000-2000J/kg. Elevated storms and rain showers have
developed over the past several hours due to weak isentropic ascent
in central Kansas, and continues to move towards the southeast. This
has led to temperatures staying steady in the upper 70s and low 80s
across northeastern Kansas.

While there is some slight chances for some scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon, the best chance for strong to severe storms will be
late this evening and overnight. Convection that moves in from each
vorticity max should grow upscale in north central KS and
south central NE and track southeastward. The strongest storms
should follow the instability gradient that will be set up
northwest to southeast in central Kansas. Some models have the
convection a bit further east, with others keeping convection to
the southwest of the warning area. The most likely area of strong
convection should follow the nose of the LLJ as most CAMs
positioning it in central and south central Kansas. The main
threats with storms will mainly be large hail, damaging winds and
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Heavy rains could accompany
storms as PWATs are around 1 inch, so localized flooding could be
an issue if training of storms occurs.

Looking forward to Friday and beyond, storms should move east by
around sunrise with clearing skies during the afternoon. Highs
Friday will be able to reach the low 80s and should be the last cool
day for several days. An upper-level ridge builds into the midwest
and will warm temperatures into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday and
Monday. Heat indicies could reach triple digits as dewpoints will be
nearing 70 degrees. A weak disturbance embedded in the upper ridge
Saturday night into Sunday morning will move across the central
plains and could bring chances for POPs in far northeastern Kansas.
The next interesting synoptic feature that long range models are
hinting at will come next Wednesday as a lifting upper-trough axis
ejects out of the mountain west and could help to bring relief to
the warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

The 03Z RAP and 00Z NAM show some isentropic upglide persisting
through the morning hours across northeast KS with elevated
instability slightly increasing. Even though the low level jet
doesn't look to be very strong, this lift along with some weak
instability could help elevated showers and storms to fester
through the morning. This is also depicted by a couple of the
CAMs. There is reasonable agreement from the models for some MVFR
CIGS to move in from the west as elevated SHRA redevelop around
12Z. So will go ahead and include the lower CIGS at TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
856 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110200-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
856 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight
hours. Damaging wind and heavy rain are the main hazards with
these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf