Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

865 
WWUS83 KTOP 291529
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1029 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035-300200-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0007.220329T1700Z-220330T0200Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-Dickinson-
1029 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 009, 020, 021, 034, AND 035...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 008, 009, 020, 021, 034, and
  035.

* WIND...South winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* HUMIDITY...Falling to 14 to 25 percent in the afternoon.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Thunderstorms are unlikely during the
  afternoon, though can't be ruled out during the evening in 
  the warning area. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

$$

120 
WWUS83 KTOP 300052
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
752 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035-300200-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220330T0200Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-Dickinson-
752 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 009,
020, 021, 034, AND 035...

The National Weather Service in Topeka has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning. 

RH values are beginning to rise as temperatures cool. So the red
flag warning has been cancelled. Expect winds to shift to the
northwest through the evening and continue to gust to around 30
MPH. 

$$

Wolters

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1249 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Key Points:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow evening

- Very high to extreme fire danger tomorrow in north-central Kansas

- Cooler temperatures return Wednesday

Current water vapor imagery shows an amplified pattern across the
CONUS this afternoon. While ridging is building over the Plains,
deep upper troughs are located over both the Northeast and Southwest
US. The Southwest trough is the main focus for this forecast period,
as it approaches over the next few days. At the surface, lee
cyclogenesis is beginning across the Front Range in response to the
approaching trough. This is acting to strengthen the pressure
gradient across the region, in between the developing low pressure
and a strong anticyclone over the Midwest. Winds are beginning to
strengthen while turning more southeasterly this afternoon, allowing
a bit more warm air into the area. Temperatures have warmed to
around 60 as of 2 PM.

Overnight and into tomorrow morning, the developing low pressure
over eastern Colorado will push a warm front north towards the area.
Winds turn southerly behind this warm front, bringing a surge of WAA
north. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 80s for most.
Moisture will increase as well, but will be a bit slower to occur
across western portions of the area as a dryline begins to set up.
Strong winds will also develop as a result of the tight pressure
gradient, especially towards north-central and central Kansas where
mixing will be deeper. This will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns across north-central Kansas - see Fire Wx section for more
details. As the surface low pushes east during the late afternoon
and evening, increasing large scale forcing and convergence along
surface boundaries will try to develop convection. At the moment, a
slight capping inversion, the fairly marginal moisture, and some dry
air aloft look to limit thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm development looks more
likely by the middle and late evening hours, as forcing strengthens
with the approach of a cold front. Shear is strong enough that any
storm that does develop will initially have the potential to be
severe, with wind and hail as the main hazards. Tornado potential
looks low given the marginal moisture and high LCLs, despite strong
and curved low level shear. With time during the evening,
instability looks to decrease and the LLJ looks to veer more
southwesterly. This should result in gradually decreasing severe
potential during the evening and overnight hours.

Any storms should move east of the area by sunrise Wednesday as the
cold front sweeps through. Much colder air will move in behind this
front. Some scattered showers will continue Wednesday underneath the
upper low, with even a bit of snow possibly mixing in near the
Nebraska border. Cool temperatures stick around into Thursday as the
upper low gradually moves east, with highs still in the 50s. A bit
of a warming trend closer to average will occur Friday into Saturday
as another trough approaches, bringing another chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Will continue to monitor for MVFR stratus development overnight or
early this morning ahead of the warm front. However, confidence is
not as high, as models are at least showing some saturation
around 2-3 kft, but appear to not be as aggressive. LLWS will
continue into mid-morning as winds veer from the east at sfc to
the south aloft around 45 kt. Sfc winds will increase thereafter,
remaining strong from the south through the period at 15-25 kt
with gusts 30-35 kt. Finally, thunderstorms become possible toward
the end of the period, though timing and location may still need
adjustments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Fire weather potential tomorrow will largely depend on the dryline
position across north-central Kansas. Behind the dryline, RH will
fall into the 15 to 25 percent range as temperatures warm into the
mid 80s. South-southwest winds will strengthen to 25-30 mph with
gusts to around 45 mph. This will result in extreme fire danger.
There remains some uncertainty in exact the dryline position, but
have issued a Fire Weather Watch for my western three counties where
confidence in the lower RH behind the dryline is the greatest. Ahead
of the dryline, moisture return will still be slow enough that RH
will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range by early afternoon.
Coupled with the winds, this will still result in very high danger
for areas along and west of the Flint Hills.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
KSZ008-020-034.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008-020-021-034-035-037-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha
FIRE WEATHER...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
305 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
305 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary hazards with any storm that forms during this timeframe.

Winds will strengthen to 20 to 30 mph during the day Tuesday, with
gusts 35 to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of
central Kansas. These strong winds will combine with low relative
humidity to result in very high to locally extreme fire danger
across much of the area along and west of the Flint Hills. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for portions of north-central Kansas
where there is greatest confidence in very low humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf