Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

729 
WWUS83 KTOP 250802
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

KSZ008>010-020>022-034-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0006.220325T1700Z-220326T0200Z/
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Ottawa-
302 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 009, 010, 020, 021, 022, AND 034...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 008, 009, 010, 020, 021, 
  022, and 034. 

* WIND...Northwest winds sustained near 20 mph with gusts 
  around 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Between 18 and 22 percent.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Located across north central into parts of 
  northeast Kansas.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

440 
WWUS83 KTOP 260050
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
750 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

KSZ008>010-020>022-034-260200-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220326T0200Z/
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Ottawa-
750 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 009,
010, 020, 021, 022, AND 034...

The National Weather Service in Topeka has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning. 

Winds have weekened and RH values are beginning to recover.
Therefore the red flag warning has been cancelled early.

$$

Wolters

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Key Messages:

- Cool and mostly cloudy Today

- Very High Fire Danger Friday for north central and parts of
northeast Kansas

- Warming up this weekend into early next week

Early morning satellite watervapor loop shows the upper low from the
Great Lakes into the southern Plains. A shortwave was moving
southward on the back side of the low across western iowa into
northern Missouri. This will keep a chance of some light
precipitation just to the east of the area this morning.

Today the clouds will continue across much of eastern Kansas with
north central Kansas on the edge of the cloud deck. Clouds were
spreading westward at 08Z into north central into central Kansas.
Highs today will be in the 50s in north central Kansas where
clearing late morning into afternoon is expected. Highs in the 40s
for the rest of the area where clouds remain through much of peak
heating today. Clouds decrease across eastern Kansas this evening
with mostly clear skies expected overnight. Lows tonight cool back
into the low to mid 30s.

Friday, an upper level trough will move southeast from the northern
Plains across the eastern parts of the central Plains into the Ohio
Valley. An associated mid and upper level jet will spread southward
from Nebraska into northern Kansas. A cold front will move
southeastward across northeast Kansas early Friday morning.
Increasing northwest winds near 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph
expected. Highs will be warmer topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Warm advection and mid level frontogenesis may bring a few light
showers Saturday morning across parts of south central into
southeast Kansas. The frontal baroclinic zone will remain to the
west of the forecast area resulting in highs once again in the 50s
to around 60 degrees.

A transition from northwest flow to southwesterly flow aloft occurs
from Sunday through Tuesday as a upper trough moves across the
western states and into the Rockies. Models differ on timing and
some synoptic features, but consensus blend brings a chance for
showers back into the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. There may be
enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder as well.

Temperatures warm from the 60s on Sunday to the 70s and 80s by
Tuesday. Temperatures cool off back into the 60s with clouds and
precipitation on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

MVFR cigs persist this afternoon with VFR conditions returning to
KMHK by 22z and around 00z for KTOP/KFOE. Winds become light and
mainly from the WSW overnight before increasing from the NNW
Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Expect very high to near extreme fire danger across parts of north
central and northeast Kansas to develop Friday afternoon. Dry air
mixing down from aloft will bring afternoon RH down to around 20
percent or less. Winds also will be in the 15 to 25 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph on Friday from the northwest. Models have
been trending drier with dewpoints the last couple of runs and if
mixing is deep enough could be even lower than this forecast. Fuels
will dry out quickly after the recent rainfall across the area. Have
coordinated a Fire Weather Watch for Friday from noon to 9 PM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ008>010-020>022-034.

&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-250845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Very high to extreme fire danger is possible Friday afternoon
across north central and parts of northeast Kansas. Mainly near
and northwest of a Minneapolis to Manhattan to Frankfort line. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this area on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf