Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Topeka, KS

376 
WWUS83 KTOP 140101
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
801 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

KSZ035-037-054-058-140215-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220314T0100Z/
Dickinson-Morris-Lyon-Coffey-
801 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 035, 037, 054, AND 058...

Relative humidity values have begun to increase and winds have
become slightly weaker. Will expire the Red Flag Warning as 
conditions no longer meet criteria. South winds 10 to 15 mph will
continue overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

Forecast Highlights:

-Warmer weather has arrived, and with that, elevated fire danger is
possible in spots.

-Measurable precipitation is looking likely late in the upcoming
workweek.

Forecast Discussion:

Warm air advection is underway and many locations experienced
increasing temperatures through the overnight hours as a result.
At 09Z (which is now 4 AM CDT), surface maps showed a ridge of
high pressure located along the Gulf Coast, and low pressure
centered just north of the Minnesota and Canadian border. Lee side
troughing was also evident in eastern Colorado. Southwest winds
have been breezy overnight within the pressure gradient zone
between the aforementioned pressure systems. Aloft, H5 maps show a
ridge over the Rockies and a trough moving onshore in the Pacific
Northwest. Efficient WAA in the low levels should allow
temperatures to soar into the mid and upper 60s for most
locations, especially along and south of I-70. Further north where
snow cover is more substantial early today, temperatures will be
a touch cooler, but will likely still reach 60 degrees this
afternoon.

Our air mass will remain dry today, especially south of I-70 were
dew points are forecast to remain in the 20s. Given the dry and warm
conditions, combined with breezy winds, fire concerns increase today
in these locations. See the fire weather section below for more
details.

By tomorrow, the H5 trough mentioned previously will quickly advance
into the central US. Some models have it developing into a closed
low over Oklahoma by 00Z Tuesday. The better lift and deep layer
moisture ahead of the system will remain south of the area, so I
am still not expecting measurable precipitation with this system.
The warmest day of the week looks to be Wednesday when
temperatures climb into the low and mid 70s area-wide. The next
system to watch is still expected to impact the area late Thursday
and Friday. Long range models are not in great agreement on the
position of that storm system but there is good consensus in
measurable amounts of rainfall as a surface low passes southeast
of the CWA. NWS's WPC is currently forecasting between 0.25 and
0.75 inches of liquid precip during this timeframe for a large
portion of the area. With increasing drought conditions this past
winter, a soaking rainfall would be welcomed by many.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

VFR will prevail at all sites during the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will be the bigger concern. Southerly surface winds will increase
into the afternoon today and gusts could reach 20 to 25 kts. A
strong LLJ looks to set up late this evening, so have included
LLWS after 02Z Monday at all airports.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
areas south of I-70 where minimum relative humidity values are
expected to range from 15 to 25 percent. South winds will be
sustained between 10 and 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 27 kts through
the afternoon. The mitigating factor is the increase in soil
moisture from recent snowfall. However, those fuels with short
time lags could dry quickly. All considered, the calculated
Rangeland Fire Danger Index is in the "very high" category south
of I-70 where snow has completely melted.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
442 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-140945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
442 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
areas south of Interstate 70 where snow has completely melted. In
these areas, minimum relative humidity values are expected to
range from 15 to 25 percent. South winds will be sustained between
10 and 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf