Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

328 
WWUS83 KTOP 270028
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
728 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

KSZ008-020-034-270130-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220427T0000Z/
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
728 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 020, 
AND 034...

Relative humidity is increasing and winds are decreasing over the
warned area.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Key Points:

- Frost/freeze expected tonight

- Fire Weather Watch for parts of north central KS Tuesday afternoon

- Active pattern brings increasing storm chances late Wednesday
through the end of the week

Surface ridge has been working its way into the state today with CAA
keeping temperatures cool despite ample sunshine. Meanwhile at mid
levels we have low-amplitude ridging over the Intermountain West in
between one trough impacting Ontario and the Upper Midwest and
another trough off the British Columbia coast. The surface ridge is
expected to slide across the forecast area tonight, resulting in
light winds and clear skies. This setup for radiational cooling will
bring temperatures down to the low to mid 30s area-wide. Have made
no changes to frost/freeze headlines at this point, as the counties
along the KS/NE border have the best potential to reach or fall
below the freezing mark. That being said, wouldn't be surprised if
temps at some locations end up on the colder side of guidance given
the setup and dew points in the 20s.

Throughout the day Tuesday, the surface ridge will push east of the
area with lee troughing beginning to develop in response to embedded
perturbations within the mid-level ridge. This will result in
southerly low-level flow turning back to the south with a tightening
pressure gradient. The breeziest winds are expected toward north
central KS, whereas eastern locations may stay under the influence
of the surface high into the afternoon pending how quickly it moves
east. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for parts of north central KS
with this setup in mind (see Fire Wx discussion below).

Changes in the pattern arrive by Wednesday. The aforementioned mid-
level ridge starts to traverse the area, keeping breezy conditions
in place as the surface lee trough continues to deepen. This could
result in another day of elevated fire danger. Lift associated with
the wave as well as increasing WAA brings increasing chances for
thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday, though no severe
weather is anticipated with this activity. A warming trend should
bring temperatures to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday, though clouds
and rain could keep temps a bit cooler on Thursday. A more
amplified upper trough moves into the western US by Friday,
resulting in a strengthening surface low over the High Plains.
This system brings our best chance of storms this period, which
could bring severe weather to the area. However, much uncertainty
remains in the details such as speed and strength of the system
and the impacts from morning cloud cover.

Variations in how the late week system evolves keeps uncertainty in
the forecast beyond Friday, though the pattern appears to remain
active with a few additional precip chances into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

VFR conditions persist through the period. Mainly calm winds
overnight increase from the SSW Tuesday, remaining under 10kts at
KTOP/KFOE while KMHK could see some gusts to 20kts in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Southerly winds are expected to increase into the afternoon hours as
the pressure gradient tightens over north central KS. The winds
still appear to be a limiting factor in potential Red Flag
conditions as gusts around 25mph may only be for a short period in
the afternoon, sustained 15-20mph. However, this combined with
afternoon RH of 18-25% and dry fuels may still be enough to briefly
meet criteria. Confidence isn't high enough for a Red Flag Warning
just yet, but felt the conditions at least warrant a Fire Weather
Watch at this time. Overall, it's a borderline situation that should
be monitored, and in any case we do expect very high fire danger
generally along and west of a Marysville to Manhattan line so
burning should still be avoided.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012.

Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
KSZ008-009-020.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory have been issued for tonight
as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Republic, Cloud, and
Washington Counties Tuesday afternoon. Very high fire danger is
otherwise expected along and west of a Marysville to Manhattan
line. Elevated fire danger is possible again on Wednesday in north
central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf