Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Topeka, KS

660 
WGUS73 KTOP 311149
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
649 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSC041-311159-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220531T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dickinson KS-
649 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DICKINSON COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A 
FLOOD ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 3872 9693 3871 9737 3891 9737 3892 9738
      3893 9737 3905 9737 3906 9696 3897 9696
      3898 9695 3881 9693

$$

Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Key Messages:

- Flood threat continues today and tonight

- Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening

Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and taper off this
morning as the low-level jet weakens diurnally, although the rain
chance never really diminishes completely as several outflow
boundaries and a synoptic boundary drape across the region. More
widespread and robust redevelopment is possible as early as noon
but more likely in the afternoon and evening, especially across
the southeastern half of the forecast area, as the synoptic
boundary slowly sinks southward and instability increases along
and south. Deep layer shear will decrease today as the upper jet
pulls away to the northeast; however, effective shear is still
expected to linger around 30 kts this afternoon and evening,
possibly supporting brief supercellular structures and a wind/hail
threat with the strongest storms. Storm mode will quickly become
messy due to the number of updrafts and lack of steering off the
boundary, and especially as the low-level jet increases again
tonight. As a result, the primary threat will actually be
flooding, especially in areas that already received quite a bit of
rain yesterday and early this morning. An extension to the flood
watch is planned shortly.

Storm chances will continue into Wednesday but are not expected
to be strong/severe, and should be less widespread as the main
focus for thunderstorm development (boundary/LLJ) shifts south.
After precip chances end Wednesday night, quiet conditions and
mild temperatures are then expected for Thursday and Friday.

Flow becomes more zonal again by Saturday and brings a return for
storm chances by the weekend, but predictability for any strong/
severe storm chances is too low to pin anything down for the
weekend or early next week at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to slowly
progress east early this morning, impacting the MHK terminal for
the next few hours, and the TOP/FOE terminals mainly between 07z-
10z. While a few showers may linger after sunrise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected from sunrise through about noon. The
forecast becomes tricky thereafter as a boundary stalls over the
area, making additional thunderstorms likely especially at in the
Topeka area, but timing of those thunderstorms very difficult.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected on-and-off through much of
the day, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours,
as well as briefly reduced ceilings.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-035>039-054-055.

&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. Flooding is possible, as well as a few strong to severe
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1110 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

KSZ022-023-036-038-310500-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Pottawatomie-Riley-
1110 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Geary,
southeastern Riley, northwestern Wabaunsee and southern Pottawatomie
Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of St. George to near
Grandview Plaza. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, Alma, Ogden, Grandview Plaza, St.
George, McFarland, Belvue, Emmett and Louisville.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 293 and 331.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3928 9603 3902 9625 3899 9692 3928 9655
      3935 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 253DEG 38KT 3927 9649 3904 9677

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

KSZ011-012-023-024-310500-
Pottawatomie-Brown-Jackson-Nemaha-
1119 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Pottawatomie, southern Nemaha, northern Jackson and southwestern
Brown Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Onaga, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holton, Onaga, Wetmore, Circleville, Netawaka, Soldier, Havensville
and Goff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 9558 3933 9620 3956 9630 3957 9628
      3957 9624 3958 9624 3974 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 249DEG 37KT 3948 9621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ023-024-026-038-039-310630-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jefferson-Jackson-
1239 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central
Jefferson, Shawnee, northeastern Wabaunsee, southeastern Pottawatomie
and southern Jackson Counties through 130 AM CDT...

At 1239 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Belvue to near Paxico to 7 miles south of
Alma. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Rossville, St. Marys, Dover, Silver Lake, Meriden, Hoyt,
Maple Hill, Mayetta, Paxico, Delia, Willard and Keene.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 176 and 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 9556 3919 9555 3899 9560 3890 9628
      3904 9621 3923 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 250DEG 42KT 3920 9614 3903 9618 3890 9626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH