Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
301 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Thunderstorms begin, this afternoon and continue through the night.
Some of these thunderstorms are expected to become severe, producing
erratic high winds, localized heavy downpours, hail and frequent
lightning. Tomorrow, expect widespread isolated general afternoon
and evening thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tomorrow...An upper level trof makes its way across The
Treasure State. This system transports abundant moisture across the
region. Some of these storms are expected to become severe,
producing erratic and gusty high winds, localized heavy downpours,
hail and frequent lightning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has included virtually the entire region in an Excessive Rainfall
area of Marginal Risk, with some areas falling under a slight
risk. A Flood Watch is in place for portions of central and north
central Montana, until tomorrow morning at 6am. Tomorrow will be a
warmer day, with afternoon and evening, widespread isolated
general thunderstorms forecast.

Saturday through next Thursday...Southwest Montana has chances
Saturday and Sunday for isolated to scattered general
thunderstorms. Gusty erratic winds and lightning are the primary
concerns with developed storms. As a strong upper level trough
comes in from the Pacific NW on Sunday that quickly pushes out the
weather system we have been having, the upper level trough moves
east with upper level ridging strengthening for next week bringing
drier and quieter surface conditions. Temperatures are expected
to be 5 to 10 degrees above average mid- week with temperatures
ranging in the upper 80s and low 90s as we close out
meteorological summer on Wednesday. Webb

&&

.AVIATION...
1225 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (25/18Z TAF period)

Showers and thunderstorms develop and pass through the region today
and overnight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes much of
our region in an area of marginal risk for severe weather. Expect
periods where conditions fall into the MVFR range. Mountain
obscuration is forecast. Outside of thunderstorm, winds remain light
to breezy. Breezy winds up to 20KT impact light aircraft especially
near mountains or through mountain valleys.
- Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  83  55  86 /  80  30  10  10
CTB  52  80  54  80 /  80  30  20   0
HLN  57  84  56  86 /  60  30  10  20
BZN  51  82  50  86 /  80  10   0  20
WYS  41  75  38  76 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  49  81  48  82 /  50  10   0  30
HVR  57  85  58  87 /  70  30  20   0
LWT  53  80  53  84 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
354 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

MTZ014-052-053-252245-
Broadwater MT-Jefferson MT-Central and Southern Lewis and Clark MT-
354 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Lewis
and Clark, northwestern Broadwater and northeastern Jefferson
Counties through 445 PM MDT...

At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Montana City to 12 miles south of Helena.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montana City, Winston, Alhambra, Corbin, Clancy, Jefferson City and
Goose Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Canyon Ferry Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4664 11137 4635 11172 4638 11226 4660 11185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 253DEG 14KT 4652 11190 4642 11210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
406 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

MTZ008-252230-
Beaverhead MT-
406 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Beaverhead
County through 430 PM MDT...

At 406 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles southwest of Dillon, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clark Canyon and Grant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Clark Canyon Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4487 11307 4500 11311 4508 11270 4488 11264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 260DEG 10KT 4494 11295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
408 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

MTZ008-252245-
Beaverhead MT-
408 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Beaverhead County through 445 PM MDT...

At 408 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Wisdom, or 38 miles north of Salmon, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Beaverhead County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4578 11379 4587 11346 4584 11343 4580 11343
      4575 11336 4580 11335 4582 11329 4563 11323
      4561 11377 4575 11382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 260DEG 14KT 4571 11367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
414 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

MTZ014-052>054-252300-
Broadwater MT-Jefferson MT-Central and Southern Lewis and Clark MT-
Meagher MT-
414 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lewis
and Clark, northern Broadwater, west central Meagher and northeastern
Jefferson Counties through 500 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Montana City, or 14 miles northwest of Townsend,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Silos, Fort Logan, Winston and Goose Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Canyon Ferry Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4640 11189 4657 11189 4671 11116 4632 11112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 267DEG 25KT 4647 11172

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
454 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

MTZ053-054-252330-
Broadwater MT-Meagher MT-
454 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Broadwater
and south central Meagher Counties through 530 PM MDT...

At 452 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Townsend, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Townsend and Silos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Canyon Ferry Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4630 11164 4650 11164 4655 11113 4620 11110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 266DEG 11KT 4642 11149

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC