Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
520 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region tonight,
as a Pacific cold front moves through the area. A few storms could
produce gusty winds and small hail. It will be a bit cooler on
Friday, but strong winds are also expected over North Central MT.
Over the weekend and into early next week, expect a chance for
rain or snow showers along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...A Pacific cold front will move from west
to east across the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the frontal passage. There is enough instability that
some of the stronger storms could produce some strong wind gusts
or small hail. On Friday, strong winds are expected over much of
North Central MT. There is a 90% chance of wind gusts reaching
warning criteria in the Cut Bank area. As you go east/south of Cut
Bank the probability is less for a warning wind gust, but still
close enough for much of North Central MT to be included in a
high wind warning. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday as well.
Additionally, with grasses greening up, no fire weather highlights
will be issued at this time, but elevated fire conditions are
likely, especially in grassy areas north of Highway 2.

Saturday through Thursday...A large upper level trof of low
pressure will reside over the region from this weekend into early
next week. This will result in unsettled spring like conditions,
along with below normal temperatures across the entire region
during this period. At this time, heavy precipitation is not
expected, but with several rounds of rain/snow showers
liquid accumulation amounts will start to approach a half inch in
the mountains of Southwest MT from Saturday into early next week.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible on the passes,
but no winter weather highlights are expected at this time.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 (06/00Z TAF period)

VFR conditions are mostly expected through at least the next 24
hours, but scattered thunderstorms developing along a cold frontal
passage may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions as it moves east
through 06Z. The greater threat will be erratic wind gusts of mostly
up to 50 mph and occasional lightning strikes.

Winds will shift more westerly in the wake of the cold front and
increase through around 16Z, shifting the threats more so to
mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear through the day on
Friday. Wind gusts may exceed 50 kt at times over the plains.
Otherwise, areas of mid- and high-level cloudiness will move over
the region with a chance of afternoon showers over the mountains.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  66  41  57 /  30  10  60  30
CTB  43  60  38  55 /  40   0  40  30
HLN  46  68  42  58 /  40  20  80  60
BZN  42  67  40  56 /  30  20  70  80
WYS  34  56  33  49 /  60  50  80  80
DLN  39  64  39  54 /  20  10  70  70
HVR  49  69  43  60 /  40   0  30  30
LWT  44  65  40  56 /  20  20  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Friday
Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
817 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

MTZ053-054-060315-
Broadwater MT-Meagher MT-
817 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Broadwater
and Meagher Counties through 915 PM MDT...

At 814 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and isolated
thunderstorms along a cold front extending from near Canyon Ferry
Lake to Toston. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
White Sulphur Springs, Newlan Creek Reservoir, Fort Logan and
Ringling.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 12 between mile markers 7  and 51.
 Highway 89 between mile markers 1 and 20, and between mile markers
39 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4619 11134 4613 11134 4611 11137 4667 11142
      4685 11077 4620 11073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 228DEG 41KT 4671 11127 4615 11130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
818 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW TOWNSEND          46.33N 111.59W
05/05/2022  M55 MPH          BROADWATER         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GINM8 GINGER RAWS.

&&

SAC