High Wind Watch 9, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 8 2022

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through, Thursday.
A warming trend is expected for the same period. Dry conditions
are favored across the region, today, while some mountains receive
isolated precipitation that begins late this evening and continues
into tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...

Overall forecast is in pretty good shape. However, I noticed that
winds along the Rocky Mountain Front have been blowing stronger
than previously advertised. Have therefore gone ahead and bumped
winds up about 5 to 15 mph in the windier areas, and by 5 to 10
mph in other locations. No further updates are anticipated for the
remainder of this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 8 2022 (09/06Z TAF period)

Gusty surface winds across the plains and mainly mountain
precipitation are the main concerns of this TAF period.

A gusty west to southwest surface wind will persist over the next 24
hours on the plains. Mountain wave turbulence will be likely, with
low-level wind shear possible. Otherwise, mainly mountain
precipitation will be around, obscuring mountains and bringing low
VFR conditions to terminals in Southwest Montana. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 PM MST Tue Feb 8 2022/

Today through Thursday afternoon...A closed upper level area of
higher heights is located over the Pacific Ocean, off of the
coast of Northern California. The attending ridge builds along The
Canadian west coast, even as the upper level ridge moves
eastward. With an upper level closed area of lower heights located
over Alaska, and an upper level closed area of lower heights
located over The Hudson Bay, the height gradient is squeezed, and
gusty winds, strong at times, are expected to continue through
Thursday. A High Wind Watch remains in effect. Please, see details
below. Mountain showers begin this evening and continue
intermittently into tomorrow. Lower elevations receive very little
moisture, if any, as most moisture falls as virga. Compliments of
downsloping winds, a warming trend continues through Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday...A surface cold front enters the
region from the north and slides southeastward across The Treasure
State. Temperatures cool behind the front. Most low elevation
areas are forecast to receive less than an inch of snowfall.

Saturday and Sunday...A dominant upper level ridge favors a
warming trend through the weekend, with mostly dry conditions, and
periods of breezy to gusty winds.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast model solutions are in fairly
descent agreement allowing the next upper level trof to enter the
region. Expect cooling temperatures, and widespread precipitation.
- Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  50  35  55 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  31  48  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  31  46  32  52 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  22  42  23  48 /  20  20  10   0
WYS   8  34  14  34 /  30  20   0   0
DLN  26  44  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  31  48  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  29  45  32  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Liberty...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls