High Wind Watch 7, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1100 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022

Aviation Section Updated

.UPDATE...
Main adjustment to overnight forecast period was to cancel the
Winter Weather Advisory for the Little Belt Mountains early. Radar
imagery and web cameras indicate that the snowfall there has tapered
off quite a bit, and any additional accumulation there should remain
less than one inch, which should mostly be above mountain pass
level. However, have increased the light snow coverage south over
the remainder of Meagher County through around midnight, as radar
imagery has now moved light snow into that area. Similarly,
additional snowfall should be light there with little additional
accumulation, as seen on area web cameras. Have also decreased winds
through around midnight over the plains, but am expecting westerly
winds to gradually increase there toward morning. Otherwise,
temperatures appear to be mostly on track.
-Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers associated with a weather disturbance tracking
southeast across the area this evening will diminish overnight.
Otherwise, a dry end to the weekend and start to next week is
expected with temperatures warming well above seasonal averages
by Monday. Another round of strong wind is likely on Monday
across the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
1100 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 (06/06Z TAF period)

An area of light snow will continue to move eastward across Central
MT through about 10z. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in this
band of snow, along with mountain obscurations. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions to prevail across the region through the period.
Surface winds will once again increase by late morning across the
region, and be windy at times on Sunday afternoon. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022/

Area remains under a slightly cyclonic NW flow aloft this evening
with one more emebedded shortwave disturbance to move through the
region before upper level ridging builds east later tonight
through early Monday. Scattered snow showers mainly affect
mountain areas through evening as well as much of Judith Basin
and Fergus contiues where NW mid level flow will bring some
enhanced precipitation coverage to areas near the Little Belts and
Snowies. Still expecting any impactful snow accumulation of more
than an inch to be confined to the higher elevations in the Little
Belts, including US-89 over Kings Hill, where a Winter Weather
Advisory continues through 9pm this evening.

Dry, sunny and increasingly mild conditions are expected Sunday
into Monday as the upper ridge builds across the region. Warmest
temperatures will be across the north-central MT plains where
afternoon temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s at most
locations Sunday and may reach the mid-upper 50s by Monday. A
shortwave disturbance moving into BC Monday crashes the upper
level ridge and moves quickly SE across the region late Monday
and Monday night. Main impact from this system will likely be
another round of strong winds across the north-central MT plains
late Monday. Favorable temperature/wind profiles support strong
winds along the east slopes Monday morning and afternoon timing
of the frontal feature should help translate strong winds east
across north- central MT Monday afternoon and evening. Ensemble
model guidance also continues to support a high probability for
gusts greater than 55 mph across areas along and west of I-15 and
east across Cascade, southern Chouteau and Judith Basin counties,
where a High Wind Watch has been posted.

Upper level ridging rebuilds quickly to our west Tuesday through
the rest of next week with just some weak embedded shortwave
disturbances moving through NW flow aloft at times. This will
maintain overall dry and mild conditions across the area with
daytime temperatures potentially peaking in the mid to upper 50s
again on Thursday over the plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  46  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  43  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  22  42  22  48 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  12  37  12  43 /  10   0   0   0
WYS   0  29  -1  32 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  14  37  16  42 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  23  45  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  42  27  51 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Toole.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls