High Wind Warning 6, NWS Great Falls, MT

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
949 AM MST Thu Jan 20 2022

MTZ009-010-044-046-048-210500-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220121T0500Z/
Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole-Eastern
Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Including the following locations: Marias Pass, Bynum, Brady,
Shelby, Choteau, Browning, Heart Butte, Logan Pass, Augusta, Cut
Bank, Conrad, and Sunburst
949 AM MST Thu Jan 20 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph, with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front, including all of Glacier and 
  Pondera Counties, and Toole.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles.

$$

Brusda

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
654 PM MST Thu Jan 20 2022

MTZ009-010-044-046-048-210300-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220121T0500Z/
Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole-Eastern
Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Including the following locations: Marias Pass, Bynum, Brady,
Shelby, Choteau, Browning, Heart Butte, Logan Pass, Augusta, Cut
Bank, Conrad, and Sunburst
654 PM MST Thu Jan 20 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Strong winds are no longer expected over the warned area. However, 
continue to use caution as wins may gust at or above 40 mph at times 
through the evening hours.

$$

RG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1017 PM MST Wed Jan 19 2022

...Aviation Section Updated...

.UPDATE...

Forecast for the rest of tonight is generally on track with just
some minor adjustments to keep up with observed temperatures.
Clear skies and light winds have allowed temps to fall near or
below zero across most areas on the plains this evening as
expected. Southwest winds and warming along the east slopes of the
Rocky Mtn Front and north slopes of the Little Belts is beginning
to expand east and north and should gradually progress into the
Great Fall area by midnight and a bit later tonight at Cut Bank.
With a low density snow-cover in place along the east slopes and
across areas north of the Little Belts, there is still some
concern for a period blowing and drifting snow as winds increase
late tonight through Thursday morning. Temperatures warm to the
teens and twenties fairly rapidly with the onset of winds
overnight and should further warm above freezing by late Thursday
morning. -Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be a quiet night across much of the region, along with
very cold temperatures over the northern portions of the region.
On Thursday, another weather disturbance will move through the
region, producing snow over Central and Southwest MT. Afternoon
temperatures will be a bit warmer, as gusty southwest winds
develop as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
1017 PM MST Wed Jan 19 2022 (20/06Z TAF period)

Mid to high level cloud cover increases across the entire area late
tonight through Thursday morning with a weather system moving SE
into the region. Expect areas of precipitation and mountain
obscuration Thursday afternoon as the system moves through the area
with some potential for brief MVFR conditions in showers across
mainly SW MT terminals. Gusty surface winds develop along the east
slopes of the Rockies tonight with gusts in excess of 30kts likely
at KCTB and KGTF by Thursday mid-morning. Mountain wave turbulence
and low-level wind shear will increase through tonight and Thursday
across the area. Though fairly low confidence, the arrival of
showers and warmer temperatures aloft over frozen surfaces could
mean there is some potential for freezing rain on frozen ground
surfaces at some terminals, with KHVR being the most likely to see
such an occurrence.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 PM MST Wed Jan 19 2022/
Tonight through Friday...Main concern overnight is low
temperatures this evening over North Central MT. The models have a
brisk southwest wind developing this evening, thus temperatures
will likely rise later this evening and into Thursday morning.
However, how far they fall this evening will be tricky. In the
Havre area, temperatures will likely not rise much overnight, as
the downslope winds will not be as strong in this region. Gusty
winds on Thursday morning could lead to some blowing snow, but
held off on an advisory, as the blowing snow impacts should only
last a couple of hours. Afternoon temperatures warm above normal,
this will reduce the blowing snow as well. Another fast moving
upper level disturbance will move southward through the region,
producing some light snow over Central/Southwest MT. Kings Hill
looks to be the most impacted, thus a winter weather advisory
issued for that region, with a 25 percent chance snow
accumulations could exceed 5 inches, thus the snowfall forecast
of 2 to 5 inches in this area. The heavier snowfall in Southwest
MT around Big Sky/West Yellowstone should mainly be in the
mountains. Snow shower diminish on Friday, along with seasonable
temperatures.

Saturday through Wednesday...Overall expect seasonable
temperatures and weather conditions during this period, with the
best chance for any precipitation from Monday into Tuesday. Right
now the GFS is a bit more aggressive with precipitation than the
NBM, thus some adjustments to the forecast are possible for early
next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  42  27  39 /   0  20  20  20
CTB  -6  42  26  37 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  12  39  28  39 /   0  40  30  30
BZN   6  35  22  36 /   0  70  60  40
WYS   8  24  11  30 /   0  90 100  40
DLN  15  34  21  34 /   0  80  40  10
HVR  -7  39  26  34 /   0  30  40   0
LWT  -1  41  27  34 /   0  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 10 AM MST Friday
Cascade...Meagher.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon MST Thursday Blaine...Hill.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls