High Wind Warning 36, NWS Great Falls, MT

459 
WWUS75 KTFX 270844
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
144 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

MTZ301>303-307-308-272200-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-221127T2200Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Browning, Bynum, Choteau,
Heart Butte, Babb, Cut Bank, Marias Pass, East Glacier Park,
Ethridge, Logan Pass, Dupuyer, Saint Mary, Santa Rita, Pendroy,
Rogers Pass, and Kiowa
144 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, and Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ304-305-309>318-320-325-330-280000-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0036.221127T1500Z-221128T0300Z/
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Eastern Pondera and Eastern
Teton-Western and Central Chouteau County-Bears Paw Mountains and
Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County
and Judith Gap-Fergus County below 4500ft-Upper Blackfoot and
MacDonald Pass-Gates of the Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle
Mountains-Madison River Valley-Gallatin and Madison County
Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Flesher Pass, Carter, Neihart,
Brady, Geyser, Bozeman Pass, Whitlash, Rocky Boy, Lothair,
Norris, Fort Benton, Battle Ridge Pass, Raynolds Pass, Ledger,
Benchland, Jeffers, Big Sky, Joplin, Hilger, Canyon Creek,
Marysville, Kings Hill Pass, Maudlow, Havre, Ennis, Wolf Creek,
Floweree, Monarch, Chester, Deep Creek Pass, Galata, West
Yellowstone, Conrad, Cameron, Moccasin, Trident, Shelby, Windham,
Lincoln, Craig, Raynesford, Devon, Stanford, Great Falls,
Lewistown, Hobson, Targhee Pass, McAllister, and MacDonald Pass
144 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 
PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and southwest Montana.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

CC

143 
WWUS75 KTFX 272058
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
158 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

MTZ301>303-307-308-272200-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-221127T2200Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Kiowa, Browning, Santa Rita,
East Glacier Park, Logan Pass, Cut Bank, Marias Pass, Ethridge,
Pendroy, Bynum, Dupuyer, Rogers Pass, Heart Butte, Babb, Saint
Mary, and Choteau
158 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will continue through late afternoon 
across portions of North-central and Southwest Montana. Damaging 
wind gusts in excess of 58 mph are no longer expected today.

$$

MTZ304-305-309>318-320-325-330-272200-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-221128T0300Z/
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Eastern Pondera and Eastern
Teton-Western and Central Chouteau County-Bears Paw Mountains and
Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County
and Judith Gap-Fergus County below 4500ft-Upper Blackfoot and
MacDonald Pass-Gates of the Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle
Mountains-Madison River Valley-Gallatin and Madison County
Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Cameron, Stanford, Battle
Ridge Pass, Whitlash, Flesher Pass, Great Falls, Brady, Moccasin,
Benchland, Canyon Creek, Lothair, Norris, Lincoln, Devon,
Floweree, Raynesford, Geyser, Lewistown, Trident, Hilger, Kings
Hill Pass, Ennis, Havre, Joplin, Deep Creek Pass, Rocky Boy,
Targhee Pass, Fort Benton, Ledger, Shelby, McAllister, Bozeman
Pass, Marysville, Maudlow, Windham, Jeffers, Monarch, West
Yellowstone, Raynolds Pass, Carter, Neihart, Chester, Conrad,
Galata, MacDonald Pass, Big Sky, Wolf Creek, Craig, and Hobson
158 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will continue through late afternoon 
across portions of North-central and Southwest Montana. Damaging 
wind gusts in excess of 58 mph are no longer expected today.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1115 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

The primary band of rain and snow is clearing away through
Southwest Montana late this morning, now mainly south of I-90.
Expect minor impacts to travel over Monida, Raynolds, and Bozeman
passes through around noon. Areas of dense fog developed in the
Great Falls area mid-morning as drier air aloft cleared the higher
clouds, allowing for the surface layer to cool to saturation.
Drier air continues to mix down to the surface, as satellite
imagery reveals clearing of low clouds from the west across
North-central Montana. Overall forecast for a clearing trend
remains on track today. Minor updates were posted to better match
observed hourly trends in fog, precipitation and temperatures.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A weather system moving southeast across the region will bring
snow to the central and southwest mountains and their northern slopes
and foothills through early this afternoon. A second and stronger
system approaching the area tonight through Sunday will bring
high winds to lower elevations and snow to the mountains and
northern slopes and foothills. It will also bring a pattern change
to much colder temperatures with rounds of light mountain snow
for the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
1115 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 (26/18Z TAF period)

MVFR or temporary IFR conditions persist late this morning for
KGTF/KBZN/KEKS. For KGTF, low ceilings remain after morning
precipitation cleared the area.  For Southwest Montana, rain and
snow showers continue for a few more hours. Overall skies will
continue to clear through this afternoon and evening from northwest
to south.  Strong west to southwest winds develop this evening
through the overnight along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains,
with associated low-level wind shear and turbulence impacts. Strong
winds continue through the end of the TAF period as a strong cold
front approaches the region from the northwest.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 416 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022/

Today...

A sharp and fast-moving disturbance is currently moving over
northwest Montana early this morning and will quickly move across
central and southern Montana by mid-afternoon. For the central and
southwestern mountains and adjacent northern foothills/slopes,
expect up to several hours of snow leading up to the passage of
this system, which may impact travel especially over the mountain
passes, particularly Bozeman Pass. A Winter Weather Advisory for
impactful snow accumulations has been issued accordingly. For the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front, snow should quickly end with the
disturbance passage this morning but may end as an hour or two of
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as the dendritic growth
zone quickly dries out. Minimal to no impacts are expected from
any freezing rain/drizzle on this side of the Continental Divide.

Tonight through Sunday night...

A more dynamic weather system moves southeast toward our area
tonight into early Sunday, then settles over the area through the
early part of next week with temperatures returning back to below
normal. A strong westerly jet streak will bring increasingly
stronger winds through the night tonight over the Rocky Mountain
Front region. A cold front moving south along the east slopes of
the Northern Rockies will provide additional forcing during the
day Sunday from north to south, allowing strong to high winds to
push east across much of the forecast area. Outside of the
immediate east slopes of the Northern Rockies and the Little
Belts, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether high wind
criteria will be reached, with most areas showing 45 to 70 percent
chances of winds exceeding >55 mph. This includes parts of
southwest Montana prone to strong or high winds in similar
situations with strong frontal systems moving southeast through
the region. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the zones most
favored to approach these higher winds >55 mph, though it should
be noted that not all parts of the southwest Montana zones in the
watch will see strong/high winds.

The system will also produce snow across the Northern Rockies and
the central and southwest mountains, and for lower elevations
snow will primarily be limited to a brief ~1-2 hr window as the
front moves through. Overall, however, snow accumulations will be
limited even over the mountains and northern slopes/foothills with
the initial disturbance by how fast it moves across the area.
However, additional light snow lingers into Monday and Tuesday
given weak disturbances will move west to east across the forecast
area within the overall stationary longwave trough that becomes
established over the region generally light snow accumulations
over central and southwest Montana. CC

Wednesday into next weekend...

Additional subsequent upper lows dive south from the Arctic down
the West Coast within a broad deep longwave trough over much of
northern and central North America. This will allow for weak
upper ridging to develop downstream over Montana Wednesday into
Thursday along with weak southerly low-level winds, allowing for
some moderation of temperatures outside of sheltered valleys where
inversions will keep temperatures well below normal. Models are
in good agreement a system ejects northeastward across the region
Friday bringing the chance of widespread accumulating but
generally light snow with temperatures again dropping back well
below normal for all areas. Unsettled and frigid conditions
likely continue through next weekend into the following week as a
deep Arctic trough remains over central North America and the
forecast area lies under northerly flow aloft. CC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  28  42  12 /  40  10  30  10
CTB  39  27  38   9 /   0  20  60  40
HLN  38  22  40  12 /  40  10  60  30
BZN  35  14  36  12 /  90   0  30  70
WYS  32  11  25   8 /  90  20  60  90
DLN  34  14  32  11 /  50   0  20  60
HVR  40  27  42  12 /   0  20  30  20
LWT  36  22  39  11 /  80  20  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls