Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
901 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Showers and storms are currently pushing through the eastern gulf
waters and nature coast. The latest radar is showing heavy
downpours, frequent lightning as well as gusty winds and water
spouts over the waters as the squall line pushes close to the
coastline. A Tornado Watch has been issued for the eastern gulf
waters and from Charlotte County northward through 4 pm this
afternoon. The latest HRRR guidance shows the main line of showers
and storms pushing through Tampa Bay from 11 am - 3 pm and then
pushing through SW Florida between 3 pm - 7 pm. Showers and storms
should taper off late this evening into the overnight hours with
partly cloudy skies and rain-free conditions expected on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 858 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

A strong cold front is pushing closer to west central and southwest
Florida this morning. Clouds will start to increase across the
northern terminals after 12z, with some pre-line storms possible
starting 15-18z and the main line generally between 18-23z. Some
lingering showers possible behind it through around 00z with winds
veering from the south to the W/NW through the period as the front
pushes south through the area. VFR conditions return overnight and
continue through Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 858 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

A SCA remains in effect this morning through 1 pm for the northern
and central waters with winds from the south around 20 knots and
seas around 7 feet in place. SCEC remains for Tampa Bay and the
southern waters including Charlotte Harbor as winds there are in the
15 to 20 knot range with seas 4-5 feet this morning. Showers and
storms will move through the waters today ahead of a cold front.
Winds shift to the north behind the front and subside on Friday.
Winds will then continue from the N/NE through the rest of the
period with another round of showers and storms possible Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
FMY  81  64  75  57 /  70  50   0  10
GIF  79  55  71  50 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  80  58  72  52 /  90  20   0  10
BKV  78  48  69  40 /  90  10   0   0
SPG  77  59  68  55 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Noah
UPPER AIR...Delerme

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
536 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-
242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-873-876-
161045-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-
Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-
Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
536 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Florida, west
central Florida and Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move southeast through the Nature
Coast this morning, the Tampa Bay area during the late morning and
early afternoon, and southwest Florida this afternoon and evening.
Some strong or severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds
gusts, isolated tornados and water spouts, small hail, isolated
flooding, and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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