Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
141 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Sufficient deep layer moisture and instability persists south of
the I-4 corridor for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
the remainder of the afternoon. Atmosphere marginally conducive
for an isolated strong storm capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail. Best chance would be from the Tampa area and south
along the coastal counties where there could be enhanced low
level convergence if a weak sea breeze develops.

Decreasing cloudiness tonight as surface high pressure over the
southeast U.S. gradually builds over the Florida peninsula through
Sunday with increasingly stable air advecting over the region. The
area of high pressure will push east of the region on Monday as a
cold front approaches the region. Boundary layer winds will shift
to the south and southwest which will allow a brief return of
some deeper moisture. The cold front will push across the Florida
peninsula on Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.

Modified Canadian high pressure will build over the forecast area
behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday with much cooler
drier air advecting across the region for mid/late in the week.
Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s extreme northern nature
coast...lower to mid 50s central...and upper 50s to around 60
south. Gradually warming temperatures Thursday and Friday, but
still very pleasant conditions with low relative humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Predominately VFR conditions SCT LCL BKN 030-040 remainder of the
afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms vcnty
all terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Clearing skies tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

High pressure will hold over the waters through Monday. A cold
front will push across the waters on Tuesday with increasing
northwest winds in the wake of the front with exercise caution
conditions possible Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

No fire weather hazards are expected through Monday as afternoon
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  70  85 /  10   0  10  30
FMY  72  89  71  88 /  30  10  10  20
GIF  67  87  66  87 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  69  86  69  83 /  20  10  10  30
BKV  62  89  64  86 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  72  86  72  82 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT....Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana

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