Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
930 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

A pocket of drier air, precipitable water less than 1.5 inches,
will continue to move across the central Florida peninsula this
morning keeping skies mostly sunny. However, more moisture is
poised across south Florida and this will spread north this
afternoon with another active thunderstorm day expected. Similar
to yesterday the southeast flow will keep the highest rain chances
along the west coast counties where the sea breeze will be trying
to move inland. Also similar, the main hazards with any storms
will be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall, and with 500 mb temperatures around -7C to -8C again
cannot rule out some hail in the stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

VFR conditions will prevail into early afternoon, then some
MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible as showers and
thunderstorms develop and become more numerous along the west
coast late this afternoon and evening. East to southeast winds
will continue at 6 to 10 knots, except shift to onshore at TPA,
PIE, and SRQ this afternoon. Light east to southeast winds then
return to all sites this evening. Winds in the vicinity of
convection could be strong with gusts up to 35 knots possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Inverted trough in the upper levels continues to support
convection over the Gulf of Mexico as it travels west, while
ridging builds back towards the Southeast over the next few days.
At the surface, high pressure remains in control with dry air
advecting from the east towards the Sunshine State.

On tap for today, dry Saharan Air is going to try mix in through
this morning allowing for some of the high clouds to clear out. In
terms of winds, relatively strong east to southeast flow
prevails. As a result showers and thunderstorms should begin
inland, early, and become more widespread along the sea breeze
closer to the coast during the afternoon and evening. Compared to
yesterday, there should be less upper level support from the
aforementioned trough, however, some of the drier air trying to
mix in could allow for some strong winds to push down as a
microburst. In addition, model soundings bring CAPE values over
2000 J/kg and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg with some healthy lapse
rates, and PWs increasing throughout the day. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning, heavy downpours are anticipated during this
time.

Things are expected to dry up for maybe Wednesday and definitely
on Thursday, as dry Saharan Air slides into the area. PWs plunge
to around 1.50 inches limiting convection during this time. This
also means that conditions warm up through the middle of the week,
as many areas wont get the relief from storms in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Going into the weekend, model guidance bring a deep trough into
the Northeast and stretches it across the Eastern Seaboard. The
boundary associated wit this system could increase rain chances
through the weekend as it could stall along northern parts of the
state and linger into early next week.

Good news is that temperatures should decrease slightly with the
increase in cloud coverage from the system, if it materializes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Ridging will remain north of Florida through the period. This
will keep a south to southeast flow with winds generally staying
below 15 knots. For today the biggest boating hazard will be in
the evening hours as showers and storms start to push off the west
coast of Florida. We will see some drier air push over the area
for the rest of the work week which will limit rain shower
chances. By the weekend moisture will be returning which will
bring back higher chances of showers and storms in the Gulf mainly
in the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Warm and relatively humid conditions with east to southeasterly
winds expected today. The sea breeze should support storms in the
afternoon. However, drier air is anticipated to move into the area
Wednesday and Thursday limiting convection each afternoon. Moisture
values increase before the weekend as low pressure system approaches
the area. Otherwise, no fire weather concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  79  94  80 /  70  40  30  20
FMY  94  76  94  77 /  70  30  30  10
GIF  96  77  96  77 /  40  30  20  10
SRQ  93  76  92  77 /  70  40  30  20
BKV  94  74  94  74 /  50  40  20  20
SPG  93  79  92  80 /  70  50  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Flannery
MARINE/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley
FIRE WEATHER...Delerme

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