Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain north of Florida
through midweek then gets pushed south into the area Thursday and
then into the Florida Straits by the weekend as an upper level
trough and associated cold front move through the southeast states.
Thus the east to southeast low level flow will continue through
Wednesday then become rather light Thursday and Friday, and then
north to northwest this weekend.

For the rest of today we'll see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop and move west northwest toward the west coast
and eventually out into the gulf this evening. The highest coverage
will be over the west coast counties late this afternoon and early
evening. Skies will then become partly cloudy overnight.

For Tuesday we'll see a similar scenario to today with partly to
mostly sunny skies in the morning followed by scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening convection.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
move in from the southeast with precipitable water values forecast
to fall below 1.5 inches. This will limit the convective coverage
with rain chances 30 percent or less, with the highest chances along
the west coast late in the day.

For Thursday a rather light and variable flow will be in place as
the ridge axis shifts south across the area with the dry SAL holding
on for much of the day. Should see the sea breezes develop and move
well inland thanks to the rather light flow and this along with the
limited moisture could pop a few showers and thunderstorms, but
over, precipitable water between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, will lead to
all chances will remain 30 percent or less.

On Friday the weakening frontal boundary will move into north
Florida suppressing/splitting the ridge axis and thus allowing winds
to become more northwesterly. Deep moisture in the vicinity of the
boundary will drift south into the northern half of the area, but
with the flow being northwesterly the highest rain chances will be
over the northern Nature Coast and interior.

On Saturday the low level northwest flow will continue and with
plenty of moisture in place we'll see scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms develop with the best chances across the Nature
Coast and interior. However, with the flow being northwesterly and
the frontal boundary stalled out to the north we could see
convection at almost anytime across the Nature Coast, while further
south it will be mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Early next week the upper level trough will remain over the eastern
U.S. with abundant moisture across the area leading to scattered to
numerous convection. However with the flow remaining west to
northwest convection could occur at almost anytime, but the highest
chances each day will start near the coast in the morning and then
shift inland each afternoon and evening

Main hazards from the thunderstorms through the forecast period will
continue to be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall that could cause flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop at
the TAF sites this afternoon and evening which could cause some
MVFR/local IFR conditions. Convection will move west out into the
gulf during the evening with VFR conditions expected later this
evening into Tuesday morning. Will need to monitor trends tonight
as we may see some areas of low IFR ceilings develop toward
morning continuing into the mid-morning hours Tuesday. East to
southeast winds will continue at 6 to 10 knots, except shift to
onshore at TPA, PIE, and SRQ this afternoon. Light east to
southeast winds then return to all sites this evening. Winds in
the vicinity of convection could be strong with gusts up to 35
knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

High pressure ridge axis remains north of the area through midweek
producing moderate east to southeast wind flow over coastal waters
with occasional nocturnal surges for increased seas at times.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with
gusty outflow winds and dangerous lightning, along with locally
higher winds and seas. High pressure sinks southward into the region
later in the week with lower winds and seas expected, but scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

No fire weather hazards are expected through the week as minimum
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels and winds
will remain less than 15 mph outside of any convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  95  80  95 /  60  60  50  30
FMY  76  95  77  95 /  40  60  30  20
GIF  76  96  77  97 /  40  50  20  30
SRQ  75  93  76  92 /  60  60  50  30
BKV  73  95  73  95 /  40  50  40  30
SPG  78  93  79  92 /  60  60  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

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