Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop this afternoon in an
environment that continues to be supportive. Much like this morning,
conditions remain favorable with plenty of moisture (PW now over
2 inches) and continually increasing instability (2-3k J/KG). Sea
breeze and outflow boundaries are also continuing to providing
forcing for ascent, so all the ingredients are there. By Florida
standards, there is some drier and cooler air aloft (-8 to -9C),
driving steeper lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C in the first 3km
and still 6.5 degrees C in the middle 700-500mb layer. All of
these combined factors support two things: precip loading that
could create wet microbursts with winds in excess of 50 mph and
small hail. On an isolated basis, a severe storm is not out of the
question today. Although conditions have mostly quieted down for
now.

Today is really the first time we've seen a significant rebound in
moisture to support more numerous storms since the drier period
that settled in last week. That theme should generally continue
through the week, with the best chances remaining during the
afternoon and evening hours each day over land. Rain chances are
better overnight offshore, with the land breeze development,
because of storms drifting off the coast. The latter is not really
likely to happen until later this week, though.

Placement of the ridge puts us under really light regime #1 type
flow through tomorrow. This favors inland propagation of the sea
breezes, with little resistance to do so. Storm motion is likely to
be slow and erratic, also favoring heavier rainfall with the deeper
and more long-lived cells.

Later in the work week, the ridge axis shifts northeastward as an
upper-level trough to lifts NE as well, creating a void for the high
to fill. In response, our flow should become more ESE, much like
regime #7. This doesn't yield a dramatic change in conditions, other
than to favor more late day storms along and west of I-75 as opposed
to inland. This is in response to the expected delayed and pinned
west coast sea breeze in such a flow pattern. It may also yield
slightly higher temperatures as well, with limited sea breeze
progression.

The one wild card in all this is drier air. Looking out over the
Tropical Atlantic, there is a lot of dust still present. Models have
been depicting periodic pockets of this dust advecting across the
state. The timing for when these pockets arrive could potentially
limit or altogether stop thunderstorm development for an afternoon
or evening; that is if that is when the dust arrives. The timing is
crucial - and uncertain. For now, have opted to show pretty typical
scattered to numerous storms each day, but that could end up being
too aggressive depending on how things play out.

Overall, though, summer weather continues. Day-to-day variation in
expected conditions is fairly minimal, with just a slightly
different spin on essentially the same flavor each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Thunderstorms remain in the vicinity of Bay Area terminals, with
some TEMPO impacts possible. New Cu field growth near KSRQ suggests
storms may be possible soon, and thunderstorm outflow from cells E
of Tampa has been moving E towards KLAL. While still quiet in SWFL,
convection is expected in the next few hours as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with onshore
flow through the day and light and variable conditions overnight.
Similar setup again for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day over land, with some potential for these storms to drift back
towards the coast during the evening hours especially starting on
Thursday. However, the development of the land breeze and the
associated easterly push of winds each evening may also create new
storms over coastal waters. The increase in winds may yield slightly
choppier seas as well. Otherwise, though, conditions look fairly
quiet and typical for this time of year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

A rebound in moisture supports higher RH values and more scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day with the development
of onshore flow and transport winds. Other than some low
dispersions, fire weather concerns are low through the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  79  94 /  40  70  20  60
FMY  76  92  76  93 /  50  70  20  70
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  40  70  20  60
SRQ  75  91  74  92 /  40  70  20  60
BKV  73  92  72  93 /  40  70  20  50
SPG  79  91  78  92 /  40  70  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Flannery

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