Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
741 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.AVIATION...
A mix of mainly MVFR/VFR cigs continue across the sites this morning
and should continue like this through around 15Z or so. A cold front
with a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
through the rest of the day, with VCTS and TEMPOs for thunder and
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys starting at 15Z for northern sites and then
shifting southward through the day before diminishing this evening.
Winds will remain on the gusty side, up to around 30 knots or so, and
will shift from south/southwest to more west/northwest through the
end of the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move across the region today and early tonight
preceded by showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center
has continued to keep much of the forecast area in a Slight Risk
for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and hail the main
threats, but an isolated tornado or waterspout cannot be ruled
out. The area of convection will diminish as it moves south this
afternoon and early tonight as upper level support moves out to
the northeast. Therefore, the rather dry conditions across
southwest Florida will likely persist.

Tonight through Saturday high pressure will build in from the
west with breezy northwest to west winds ushering in much cooler
drier air. On Sunday this high will be over the region with winds
diminishing, but the dry airmass will persist.

Early next week the high will move out into the Atlantic Ocean
with winds veering to east and then southeast beginning the
moderating trend, but dry conditions are expected to persist as
upper level ridging builds over the Florida peninsula.

AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected early this morning then some
MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in showers and
thunderstorms at TPA, PIE, LAL, and SRQ from late morning through
the afternoon. Further south at PGD, FMY, and RSW, the showers
and thunderstorms will not arrive until late afternoon and
evening, if they make it at all. Areas of MVFR ceilings will
become VFR early tonight from north to south as drier air moves in
to the area. South to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots with higher gusts by late morning and continue through the
afternoon before shifting to northwest early tonight and
diminishing to around 10 knots.

MARINE...
A cold front will move south through the waters today with south
to southwest winds ahead of it shifting to the northwest and
north and remaining elevated in the Cautionary to low end Small
Craft Advisory range through Saturday. Ample moisture ahead of
the front will support increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the waters today with a few strong to severe
storms possible. Winds and seas will subside on Sunday then veer
to east and southeast early next week approaching Cautionary
levels once again.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
for the next few days with no Red Flag conditions expected. Friday
through the weekend cooler drier air moves in with widespread
critical relative humidity values expected on Sunday, but winds
are forecast to be less than 15 mph.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  84  64  75  62 /  80  10   0   0
FMY  89  68  81  62 /  30  30   0   0
GIF  86  61  76  57 /  70  20   0   0
SRQ  83  64  75  62 /  70  20   0   0
BKV  82  54  73  52 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  81  66  73  65 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous Discussion...Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
750 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

FLZ139-239-071215-
Coastal Levy FL-Inland Levy FL-
750 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Levy County through
815 AM EDT...

At 749 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chiefland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Williston, Chiefland, Bronson, East Bronson, Fowlers Bluff, Andrews,
Manattee Road, Williston Highlands, Fanning Springs, Otter Creek and
Manatee Springs State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8317 2932 8314 2932 8312 2935 8306
      2937 8307 2940 8302 2945 8301 2947 8298
      2954 8298 2959 8294 2958 8278 2956 8275
      2957 8266 2954 8265 2954 8256 2948 8255
      2948 8241 2938 8241 2914 8313 2923 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 241DEG 45KT 2944 8280

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW